-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
114
FXUS61 KBGM 102354
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
754 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional scattered showers will be possible today. Drier
conditions will arrive this evening, and will last through most
of the week. A warm up is expected to start Tuesday, with
temperatures returning to be above normal for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
750 PM Update...

Added a chance for some sprinkles or areas of drizzle across
portions of the area through about midnight. Also, nearly all of
central NY is overcast, so increased cloud cover to completely
obscured skies through the overnight hours.


250 PM update...

Cool cloudy weather will slowly improve this period. A large
deep upper level trough is over the northeast US today. Heights
will slowly rise into Tuesday as a ridge moves into the upper
Great Lakes. This despite the trough axis being right over our
area Tuesday.

A front is helping a band of rain just north of the area east of
Lake Ontario this afternoon. A few showers are making it into
northern Oneida County. Elsewhere the moist northwest flow and
weak forcing has created some showers from Madison to Otsego
Counties. Most of the area could have a few light showers across
the terrain into early evening. Tonight will be dry and cloudy.
Lows will be from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

Tuesday drier air will move in ahead of high pressure moving in
from the west. Light to calm winds at low levels will stop
advecting in moisture from the lakes. Partial clearing will
start in the west. Cold air aloft combined with highs in the
60s to lower 70s south will create some instability under the
upper level trough. Some isolated afternoon and early evening
showers are possible in far northeast PA and into the upper
Susquehanna and western Catskills in CNY.

Tuesday night the trough will slowly exit and dry air will move
in. Skies will be partly cloudy with lows again from the mid 40s
to lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
310 PM Update...

Upper level low shifts eastwards on Wednesday allowing a ridge to
build in over our region along with a surface high. Conditions are
expected to remain calm and dry with partly to mostly sunny skies.
A temperature increasing trend starts on Wednesday as winds
shift southwest. Highs return to the mid and upper 70s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure is
expected to remain in control through Thursday with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. Cloud cover begins to fill in
Thursday night as a frontal system approaches the Great Lakes.
Lows will be more seasonable with temperatures ranging in the
low to mid 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
310 PM Update...

Frontal system moves through the region on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms through the day. Precipitation still looks
to move in early Friday morning for both the EURO and GFS
resolutions. Canadian favors a more slower resolution with showers
moving in towards the afternoon time frame. Pwat values up to 1.5
are expected with these showers leading to the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. Model soundings also show some instability
parameters present suggesting strong storms could also be possibility.
Although this will be highly dependent on the timing of the
frontal passage. High pressure builds into the region behind the
front, bringing nice and dry conditions to the CWA for the
weekend and into Monday. Temps will be seasonable, in the 70s
and 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR to VFR ceilings will persist tonight with abundant low
level moisture remaining over NY. All NY sites will at least
briefly see MVFR ceilings and KBGM has a small chance for IFR
ceilings and fog Tuesday morning, but confidence was too low to
put into the forecast at this time. KAVP will remain VFR the
entire period.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/TAC
NEAR TERM...MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...DJN/ES
AVIATION...MPK/TAC