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179
FXUS61 KBGM 081846
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
246 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of scattered showers across northern counties this
morning, mostly quiet weather today as weak high pressure
builds into the region. Rain will return Saturday night through
Sunday, lingering into Monday afternoon. Drier conditions are
expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 PM Update...
Made some earlier changes to reduce PoP grids as showers pulled
out of the area and are not expected to redevelop. Expect mostly
cloudy skies to prevail through the afternoon.

630 AM Update...

Lake effect showers continue to stream across the northern
portion of the CWA, and should continue to do so into the late
morning hours. Forecast remains on track from this mornings
package and no significant updates were made.


340 AM Update...

Lake effect showers have moved into the region, with most of
the concentration along and north of the Mohawk Valley. Some
isolated showers are streaming across CNY and should for the
next few hours. Lake effect showers are expected to continue
through the morning hours, dissipating by early afternoon as the
airmass over the lake warms up and the lake response weakens. A
weak ridge building in from the SW will keep conditions mostly
quiet through the afternoon and evening hours, with a slight
chance for a pop up shower over areas north of the Southern Tier
and east of the Finger Lakes as the ridge will have less
influence over this region. Temperatures today will be
seasonable, climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Ridging does not last long as another trough rotates into the
region from the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. The
mid- level shortwave looks to be stronger than the one that
moved through Friday with better upper level support. Our CWA
will sit under the left exit region of the jet stream that will
be positioned south of the upper trough sitting over eastern
Canada. Widespread rain showers are expected to move from W to E
across the area Saturday night, bringing up to 0.25in of rain to
the area. Temps Saturday night will be in the low to mid 50s.

Steady showers exit to the east by late morning but shower
chances remain through Sunday afternoon as a weak shortwave
ripples through the area during the afternoon. The lift provided
by this feature combined with diurnal heating will allow for
scattered rain showers and isolated thunder to develop, moving
from NW to SE across the area. Temps Sunday will be a few
degrees cooler than Saturday, climbing into the mid 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
240 PM Update:

Another shortwave trough dropping south out of Canada will move
over the region Monday leading to additional spotty showers,
mainly over CNY, where PoPs are highest at 40-50%. Any likely
PoPs that NBM loaded in were removed given the spotty nature of
the precipitation and lack of moisture support with this system.
Showers are expected to dissipate quickly Monday evening with
the loss of daytime heating. It will be quite cool Monday with
high temperatures ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s.
Overnight lows will be from the mid 40s to the low 50s.

As this upper trough continues to slowly push east Tuesday,
there can be a pop up shower or two, mainly in the Catskills and
Poconos, otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
The trough finally moves east Tuesday night and high pressure
will build in both at the surface and aloft. Highs Tuesday range
from the upper 60s to the mid 70s, while lows range from the
upper 40s to the mid 50s Tuesday night under a mostly clear sky.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
240 PM Update:

With high pressure in control, dry conditions and rising
temperatures are expected Wednesday with some sunshine. Highs
are expected to be from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Thursday
looks to be largely dry as well, with just a slight chance of a
shower as a weak shortwave passes by. However, one thing of note
is the 12Z operational GFS has come in with a wetter solution
this day, but it has not been consistent the past couple of days
compared to the Euro and Canadian which support a largely dry
solution. Ensembles also support the idea of just a slight
chance of showers, but this is something to monitor. A better
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Friday as the next
cold front approaches. Drier air is then expected to move back
in for the weekend.

The warming trend is expected to continue Thursday and Friday
with temperatures in the upper 70s to the mid 80s, and even a
few places potentially reaching the upper 80s. Overnight lows
will moderate as well Wednesday through Friday night in the 50s
and 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread fair weather cu and stratocu across the area, but
ceilings have lifted well into VFR range. Somewhat breezy W to
NW winds will continue through the afternoon, with gusts around
20-24 knots at times.

Expect VFR to continue into the evening hours with some mid
level clouds moving in and gradually thickening. An approaching
disturbance and weak developing warm front will cause showers to
develop in an east-west band across Central NY after about
03-05Z, with the main band of showers expected to arrive across
the area between 08Z and 11Z, pulling out between 14-16Z.
Showers will steadiest and visibilities lowest in NY, with
brief showers expected at AVP.

Ceilings will lower rapidly with precip onset, bottoming out in
the MVFR-Fuel Alt range for most sites. BGM could see brief IFR,
especially as showers pull out of the area Sunday morning. VFR
will prevail again after about 15-16Z area-wide.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Another round of showers
possible Sunday evening and again during the day Monday, but
with scattered coverage. VFR likely prevalent, especially
Sunday, but with some brief minor restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC/MPH