-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
231
FXUS61 KBGM 112324
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
724 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly shift east of the region tonight
leading to some clearing. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday and Thursday with warmer and drier air. This
will be followed by our next chance for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...

Cloudy skies continue over the majority of our region this
afternoon. Some light showers are still over mostly CNY this
afternoon. These showers will end by evening. Clearing is
starting to work into Lakes Erie and Ontario. This is near the
center of a large area of high pressure that is moving
southeast. Aloft the upper level trough will move east so that
weak ridging will start Wednesday. The problem with getting rid
of the clouds is the light winds in the low levels. We might
have to wait until sunshine burns off this moisture tomorrow.
Drier air will slowly move southeast with the high to over the
area tomorrow. During the afternoon we should see more sun then
Wed ngt will be partly cloudy.

For temperatures lows tonight will bee from the mid 40s to the
lower 50s. Highs Wednesday will be warmer with the afternoon
sunshine. Highs mostly in the 70s. Lows Wednesday night will be
from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

The short term starts off warm with weak ridging ahead of a
through in the Great Lakes region. The trough begins to move
into our region Thursday night into Friday but with a jet max
moving in behind the trough, the wave will likely be flattening
out with weaker lift. Still warm air advection Thursday night
will help lead to some elevated instability so a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible late Thursday into early
Friday morning. Instability is weak aloft but 30 to 40 knots of
shear may help a couple of cells to strengthen with small hail
possible. Low level inversion in place will make it tough for
any severe wind to mix to the surface.

Friday, the shear continues to increase in the afternoon with
good probability of 0-6 km shear greater than 50 knots but the
surface trough looks to be east of the region by the late
morning into the afternoon and with a lack of a trigger, storms
may not develop. There is still uncertainty with the timing of
the 500 mb trough so if it slows and moves through later Friday,
there is a better risk for severe storms in the afternoon.
Forecast hodographs show most of the shear is above 3 km so the
main severe threats with the storm will be hail and wind. Dry
air advecting in aloft will help with dry air entrainment in any
storm helping to lead to the risk of microburst and downburst
with any deeper storm if they form.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
255 PM Update...

The long term starts off with NW flow advecting in dry air and
with sunny skies, it will likely be both warm and dry despite
the cooler air advecting in aloft. Much stronger ridging begins
to build in Sunday with temperatures rising above average for
this time of the year as well as higher dew points advecting in.
Chances of precipitation were bumped up to at least slight
chance for the afternoons next week with the heat and humidity.
Ensemble average 500 mb height are around 588 dm starting Monday
with deterministic models getting up over 590 dm which is about
2 standard deviations above climatology for June so it will be
getting toasty. One thing to watch is where the edge of the
Bermuda high sets up as we could end up in the ring of fire with
daily rounds of thunderstorms next week but most ensembles keep
the edge of the ridge north of us leaving us hot and humid.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
Low stratus over the area has lifted to VFR cigs everywhere
except for SYR this evening, however even here the cigs should
lift to VFR before midnight. If clouds clear out tonight, then valley
fog is expected, but forecast confidence on fog development is
low at this time. If fog can materialize, then it will lift by
mid morning and then VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period as high pressure builds in.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at
KELM possible Wednesday.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest chances Friday
afternoon.

Saturday through Sunday...mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/KL
AVIATION...MPK/TAC