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902
FXUS61 KCAR 101812
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
212 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure across the north will slowly move away to the northeast
today through Tuesday. A weak upper trough will remain over the area
Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds to our west. High
pressure will build south of the area Thursday. A cold front will
approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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200 PM Update...Scattered rain showers continue to develop and
rotate across the forecast area this afternoon. That said, low
level lapse rates are quickly dropping off from around 7.5 C/km
to around 5 C/km behind a surface trough draping down through
the Crown of Maine at the moment, which will be enough to limit
further shower development. This return to drier weather will
continue to push southwards into this evening.

Previous Discussion:
Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain nearby to our
northeast today. Moisture pooled in the upper low will wrap across
the north bringing occasional light rain over the north today with
just some scattered showers further south. A few isolated
embedded thundershowers will again be possible over central and
interior Downeast areas during the midday and afternoon.
Forecast capes of 150-200 J/KG are advertised for central areas
this afternoon.

Low pressure to our northeast will continue to slowly move away to
the northeast tonight. This will allow clouds to give way to breaks
of clearing overnight. A few sprinkles may linger across the
north during the evening. Otherwise, showers should taper off
early in the night. The tranquil moist air over moist ground
will likely result in some patchy of fog overnight as clouds
break for some clearing.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad, weak upper level cutoff low pressure parks itself over
the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep a decent amount
of moisture trapped over the area, with primarily diurnally
driven showers in the midday/afternoon hours. Shower coverage
looks generally scattered in nature both Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM
PoPs seemed a bit high and cut them down a bit, but still went
about 10% higher for PoPs than we had. Atmosphere Tue/Wed is on
the cusp of being unstable enough for storms. For now, went with
thunder near the higher terrain of the Central Highlands only.
Winds over the region will be quite light Tue/Wed, and any
showers that develop during the heating of the day won`t move
much. That said, don`t think they will be heavy enough and
long lasting enough for flooding concerns. Temperatures Tue/Wed
will be warmer than average with roughly mid 70s for highs.
Dewpoints will be fairly moist with mid to upper 50s. Fog along
the coast could be an issue, as could fog inland Tuesday night
thanks to light winds and recent rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Diurnally driven showers should die off Wed evening, and fog
could be an issue again Wednesday night with moist low levels
and light winds. For Thursday, an upper trough begins to
approach from the west and winds begin to pick up from the SW
along with some areas inland warming to the low 80s. Chance of
afternoon showers Thursday, but nothing major.

Attention then turns to the potent upper trough and cold front
approaching Friday-ish. There is some model disagreement mainly
regarding the timing of the upper trough and cold front. If the
front moves through late Friday afternoon or Friday evening
(this is the average timing from models/ensembles), we could be
in for a good outbreak of strong/severe storms. However, timing
ranges from late Thursday night to Saturday morning for frontal
passage, and if the frontal passage doesn`t align with daytime
heating, the strong/severe threat would be greatly minimized.
Something to watch obviously.

After the front, drier and not-as-warm air moves in by late
Saturday and persists into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
MVFR tonight except locally IFR in patchy fog across the north.
VFR Downeast tonight except locally IFR in patchy fog late
tonight. Winds light west today then light and variable tonight.


SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Thursday Night...During the daytimes, generally VFR,
except for brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger showers
in the afternoon. During the nighttime and early mornings, MVFR
or lower possible in patchy fog. Better chance and more
persistent IFR/fog along the coast. Winds less than 10 kts
except during the day Thursday, when S/SW around 10 kts is
expected.

Friday...VFR early, possibly decreasing to MVFR/IFR late with
showers and storms. S/SW wind 10-15 kts with higher gusts. LLWS
possible.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light today and tonight. Seas around 4 ft today
and 2 to 3 ft tonight across the offshore waters. Chance for
some patchy fog early this morning and again late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds generally less than 10 kts and seas 2 ft or
less Tuesday through Wednesday night. From Thursday into Friday, S
winds then gradually increase to around small craft levels (25
kts) on Friday, and seas gradually build to around 5 ft (small
craft levels) on Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Bloomer
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy
Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy