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103
FXUS61 KCAR 080316
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1116 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front washes out over Maine tonight. An upper level
trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area this weekend,
then continue northeast into the Maritimes on Monday. High
pressure will build into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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11:15 PM Update...Showers have been mostly contrated over
central and western areas closer to the upper low with only some
light sprinkles over the east. Rain coverage looks good. Raised
late evening temps over the northeast where rain has not cooled
the air as much.

previous discussion
Tomorrow, models in fairly good agreement that the 500mb low
shifts into Eastern Quebec near the Maine border with cooler
850mb temperatures overhead. Shortwave energy will pivot around
the trof over Maine so expecting several areas of showers across
the area tomorrow. Expecting a mainly cloudy day tomorrow but a
few sunny breaks are possible and with any sunshine and cooler
air aloft will result in afternoon convection. Modeled soundings
showing 750-1250j/kg of SBCAPE developing tomorrow afternoon
especially away from the coast. Given the cooler boundary layer
lapse rates struggle, however any daytime heating of the
boundary layer could steepen the lapse rates. Overall, not
expecting a threat from stronger storms and just expecting
widespread showers and some thunderstorms posing the risk of
lightning on a weekend. Expecting temperatures to climb into the
mid 60s north with upper 60s to near 70F in the Central
Highlands and upper 60s along the Downeast coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The large upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the
area through the weekend, maintaining an broad area of
instability over the area with PWATs around one inch
representing plenty of available moisture. Rain showers will
continue Saturday night through Sunday, with Sunday afternoon
convection including the potential for lightning due to diurnal
heating in addition to the presence of the low.

High temperatures will remain in the 70s each day, while lows
fall into the low to mid 50s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Daily convection will continue through the week, as the previous
upper level trough presses eastward into the Canadian Maritimes.
Though high pressure will build into the area through the middle
of the week, enough lingering moisture and daytime heating will
exist for a daily chance for afternoon showers and storms.
Subsidence from the high pressure will keep low to mid level
winds light, and shear will be limited through the end of the
week, limiting the threat for any storms to become severe. As
the week continues, southwesterly return flow will lead to daily
high temperatures increasing into the upper 70s to lower 80s by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FVE, CAR, PQI...MVFR this evening high confidence
in conditions becoming IFR overnight. E-SE winds 5-15kt.
Tomorrow, IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR. -SHRA likely and possible TS
in the afternoon. E-SE winds 5-15kt.

HUL...MVFR early, then high confidence becoming IFR/LIFR
overnight. E-SE winds 5-15kt. Tomorrow, IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR
tomorrow. -SHRA likely and possible TS in the afternoon. E-SE
winds 5-15kt.

KBGR and KBHB...High confidence in IFR/LIFR overnight. -SHRA
and FG likely. FG may potentially reduce vsby less than 1/2SM in
BHB. E-SE winds 5-10kt. Becoming MVFR tomorrow with FG breaking
and
-SHRA likely and potentially TS at BGR. Possible low-end VFR at
BGR by tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night. Light NW wind....IFR north. IFR To MVFR south.
SW wind.

Sunday...IFR north and MVFR south. Afternoon thunderstorms
possible across all terminals. Light W wind.

Sunday night...IFR to MVFR north. MVFR to VFR south. Light W
wind.

Monday...MVFR north. VFR to occasionally MVFR south. Slight
chance for afternoon thunderstorms across all terminals. NW
wind. Light W winds.

Monday night...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR early, with brief MVFR possible into Tues
afternoon with any showers and storms. A chance for
thunderstorms, particularly across the northern terminals. Winds
light and variable.

Tuesday...VFR with winds light and variable.

Wednesday...VFR early, with brief MVFR possible into Wed
afternoon with any showers and storms. Generally light SW
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow.
Seas may approach 5ft at times this evening 15-25nm offshore
thanks to SE fetch but winds will shift S tonight then SW
tomorrow. Seas subside to between 2 and 4ft tomorrow. Rain
showers and fog will reduce vsby especially tonight potentially
less than 1/2nm.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA
conditions Saturday night through the first half of next week.
Seas will sit around 3 to 4 ft early before decreasing into next
week. Patchy dense fog is likely over the waters Sunday into
Monday, but the threat for fog may diminish into the middle of
the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/TWD/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Bloomer/TWD/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Bloomer/TWD/Sinko/AStrauser