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501
FXUS62 KILM 110631
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
231 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier high pressure will build into the area through midweek
with mainly rain-free and increasingly warmer weather. A
backdoor cold front this weekend will not bring appreciable rain
chances.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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A wave of low pressure along lingering front oriented from SW
to NE from SC coast off into the Atlantic waters to our east
will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms as shortwave
energy rotating around mid to upper trough enhances the
activity. Latest high res models show this area a little
farther north and west than it currently except the HREF which
seems to have a better grip on this convective activity.
Therefore will keep rain chances slim over NE SC coast mainly
over Georgetown but mainly will see a deck of clouds around 8 to
11k ft affect the area overnight. Fog remains increasingly likely
across most of northeast SC toward daybreak, and possible for
coastal SE NC, but mid clouds and weak NW-N winds may work
against it.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A shortwave moving overhead could lead to unsettled weather over NE
SC through this evening. The treat of severe weather has expanded
for this area with the main threat being isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps some hail. The question will be how far this
shortwave pushes south, as several CAMs have the activity being
pushed offshore by it and staying to our south. The issue will then
become fog for tonight due to the lingering low level moisture with
less confidence near the coast where there could be more low level
stratus. High pressure looks to get hung up to our west Tuesday with
afternoon showers/storms possible along the sea breeze. Lows in the
low to mid 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and seasonable weather is expected through the short term. Mid
level flow will be zonal and capped at 15kts. Moisture offshore will
be suppressed well to our south along frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge builds Thursday through Sunday. Even so a backdoor
cold front will sag its way either into or through the area over the
weekend. It will be quite deprived of moisture and will thus be hard-
pressed to yield meaningful rain chances. The building heights will
bring a late week warmup to some hot temperatures and heat index
values. The reversal of both temperatures and dewpoints will depend
on whether or not the late week boundary pushes through, which is
not yet certain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mainly VFR through most of the period, but sub-VFR and possibly
down to IFR for FLO in fog toward daybreak but dissipating
shortly thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms should remain
south and east of all terminals overnight into today, but a deck
of mid clouds between 8k to 11k ft will move up the coast
through this morning, mainly affecting MYR, CRE and ILM. These
clouds may keep fog out of the forecast for coastal terminals
but confidence is low. With less rainfall across SE NC over the
last couple days and lower RH values at the surface, chances of
fog are lowest for LBT and ILM. Winds will remain very light out
of the north becoming onshore as high pressure builds in, but
will trend more southeasterly through the afternoon as sea
breeze develops and into tonight as center of high migrates
toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Should see some afternoon cu
associated with sea breeze convergence in vicinity of coastal
terminals, mainly after 19z with a very low end chance of
convection.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day, with fog possible most
nights through the week.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Isolated unsettled weather is possible over the
waters through the period due to passing upper level disturbances.
SW winds tonight will become light and out of the N/NE Tuesday
morning. A sea breeze will have winds turning to out of the SE and
increasing to near 10 kts in the afternoon. Outside of wind waves,
the primary swell appears to be out of the SE at 1-2 ft and 7-9
seconds.

Tuesday night through Saturday... Very light winds will show some
variability but generally tend to favor onshore direction as weak
low along frontal boundary remains well to our south. Later in the
period as speeds remain capped at 10kt while turning to the south
ahead of backdoor cold front. Seas will be comprised of a short
period wind wave and thus remain in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MBB/LEW