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062
FXUS62 KILM 101939
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
339 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier air will work into the area behind a front Tuesday. The midweek
period will be rain-free and increasingly warm. A backdoor cold front
this weekend will not bring appreciable rain chances.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A shortwave moving overhead could lead to unsettled weather over NE
SC through this evening. The treat of severe weather has expanded
for this area with the main threat being isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps some hail. The question will be how far this
shortwave pushes south, as several CAMs have the activity being
pushed offshore by it and staying to our south. The issue will then
become fog for tonight due to the lingering low level moisture with
less confidence near the coast where there could be more low level
stratus. High pressure looks to get hung up to our west Tuesday with
afternoon showers/storms possible along the sea breeze. Lows in the
low to mid 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Quiet and seasonable weather is expected through the short term. Mid
level flow will be zonal and capped at 15kts. Moisture offshore will
be suppressed well to our south along frontal boundary.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mid level ridge builds Thursday through Sunday. Even so a backdoor
cold front will sag its way either into or through the area over the
weekend. It will be quite deprived of moisture and will thus be hard-
pressed to yield meaningful rain chances. The building heights will
bring a late week warmup to some hot temperatures and heat index
values. The reversal of both temperatures and dewpoints will depend
on whether or not the late week boundary pushes through, which is
not yet certain.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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KMYR/KCRE remain within the axis of showers/storms that have been
moving across the area vaguely west to east. Unsettled weather could
continue near these terminals through 00Z with intermittent
restrictions should precip move over terminals. Otherwise, later
tonight the majority of activity is expected to move offshore with
restrictions largely turning to impaired VSBY/CIGs due to fog/low
stratus due to lingering low level moisture. Uncertainty still
remains for coastal terminals due to the proximity of offshore
precip, things may become more clear with the next set of TAFs.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day, with fog possible most
nights through the week.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tuesday...Isolated unsettled weather is possible over the
waters through the period due to passing upper level disturbances.
SW winds tonight will become light and out of the N/NE Tuesday
morning. A sea breeze will have winds turning to out of the SE and
increasing to near 10 kts in the afternoon. Outside of wind waves,
the primary swell appears to be out of the SE at 1-2 ft and 7-9
seconds.

Tuesday night through Saturday... Very light winds will show some
variability but generally tend to favor onshore direction as weak
low along frontal boundary remains well to our south. Later in the
period as speeds remain capped at 10kt while turning to the south
ahead of backdoor cold front. Seas will be comprised of a short
period wind wave and thus remain in the 2-3 ft range.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM