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436
FXUS62 KILM 121619
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1219 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier high pressure will bring mainly rain-free and increasingly
warmer weather through the week. A moisture-starved cold front
will pass through over the weekend bringing temperatures and
humidity down a bit for early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No significant changes with the early afternoon update.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will extend in from the north as it migrates eastward
reaching the Delmarva coast late today. This will produce a light
easterly return flow around the base of the high through tonight.
Aside from a few afternoon cu and high clouds streaming across the
area, there should be plenty of sunshine with a dry airmass in
place. Pcp water values remain around an inch. Not expecting much in
the way of fog with boundary layer winds increasing into Thurs
morning. Temps will reach up into the mid to upper 80s once again
with sea breeze developing this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in
the mid 60s to around 70 closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Weak low pressure not too far to the south and east of the
area should track off to the northeast staying far offshore while
high pressure prevails inland. A cold front should be approaching SE
NC later Friday night. Little to no impacts are expected from the
low as it mostly remains dry, although a few showers can`t be ruled
out near the coast into early Friday. Temps should be near normal
through Thursday night and then become above normal Friday and
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Very low risk for significant weather

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details: A very weak cold front, more or less just a wind
shift, should move through Saturday followed by high pressure
from the north through early next week. Limited moisture should
equate to very low rain chances through the period. Saturday
still looks pretty hot due to the compressional heating from the
front with mid to upper 90s likely, warmest in SC. Heat indices
should peak in the mid 90s to lower 100s so a Heat Advisory is
not anticipated. Temps/humidity should fall a bit early next
week but temps are likely to still be near to a bit above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR expected through the period. Onshore flow gusting up to 20
knots this afternoon due to an enhanced sea breeze. Fog unlikely
across most of the area although patchy fog may develop inland
where lighter boundary layer winds and clear skies will persist
for most of tonight. VFR on Thursday.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure will extend down into the waters
from the north. As the center migrates toward the Delmarva coast
later today and then offshore into Thurs, an easterly return flow
will persist, but remain light. Any thunderstorm activity will
remain well east and south associated with old frontal boundary.
Gradient will start to tighten tonight into Thurs as low begins to
start developing along old frontal boundary off the Southeast coast.
Therefore winds will increase from 5 to 10 kts this morning up to 10
to 15 tonight. This will push seas up a bit from less than 3 ft up
to 3 to 4 ft with some 5 fter in the outer waters.

Thursday through Sunday... to be Weak low pressure should pass
not too far off to the east through Friday with a fairly weak
cold front moving through Saturday. High pressure will then
build from the north. Although winds/seas will pick up a bit due
to the passage of the low and subsequent slightly cooler and
drier air mass, we don`t expect the need for a Small Craft
Advisory.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/RGZ