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700
FXUS62 KILM 091349
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
949 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop through the Carolinas this evening
moving east and south lingering near the Southeast coast on
Monday. High pressure will build into the region on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A warm front will push northward across the region
late Thursday into Friday, and a cold front from the northwest
will stall in the Carolinas by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Going forecast in good shape this morning. Little in the way of
adjustment was required.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weather will start out quiet this morning with a bit of fog
possible, mainly closer to the coast but otherwise plenty of
sunshine and very warm temps, up into the mid 90s by this afternoon.
Winds will increase out of the SW and become gusty, especially along
the coast. Should start seeing an increase in clouds late day just
before sunset.

SPC has our area outlined in Marginal Risk of severe storms (Level 1
of 5) with a wind threat as chc of shwrs and thunderstorms increase
heading into this evening. A cold front will drop south and east with
some enhancement in the upper levels as shortwave energy rides
through the Carolinas around the base of a very broad mid to
upper trough. Dewpoints increase close to 70 by Sun evening with
increasing SW to W winds. Models show pcp water increasing up
close to 2 inches Sun evening. Should see the best forcing and
chc of any stronger storms to reach the area near or shortly
after sunset and moving from west to east ahead of a cold front
dropping south through the Carolinas. Winds will veer to the W
to NW as front draws near overnight into the pre-dawn hours of
Mon. Low temps will remain warm, in the upper 60s inland to
lower 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough from New Brunswick, Canada, to Lake Michigan
will pivot across the United States east coast in the upper
levels by Tuesday evening. On Monday, the surface cold front is
just off the Carolina coast. With the boundary in the vicinity,
the environment will be favorable for coastal showers and
thunderstorms. On Monday night, a disturbance moves
northeastward along the boundary, which brings a good chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. A chance of
thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday along the coast. Highs
will be near normal on Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be slightly
below normal Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region will be impacted by a shortwave moving from the central
plains into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday into Friday.  To
the north, a shortwave will move from Lake Michigan on Friday to off
the east coast on Saturday.  The surface trough over the gulf will
cause the old front from earlier in the week to lift northward and
increase the chance of thunderstorms, especially over the eastern
half of the forecast area.  The northern shortwave will push a cold
front from the north into the area on Saturday.  The result of this
northern wave will shunt the deep tropical moisture (+2") to the
south and the east of the region, but convection is expected. Friday
and Saturday are expected to have the better chances of
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through daytime. Sub-VFR could occur this
evening as shwrs/tstms move across the area from west to east
as a front drops down from the north. Included Prob30 for TSRA
with possible vrb gusty winds. Light SW winds will pick up
through today and become gusty, mainly coastal terminals this
afternoon. Winds will become more W-NW into this evening as
front approaches.

Extended Outlook...Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered
showers and storms Sunday night through about midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... A Southwesterly flow with minimal seas will start
today, but gradient will tighten with approach of a cold front
dropping down from the north to northwest. SW winds will increase
through this afternoon up to 15 to 20 kts. This will push seas up
from less than 2 ft this morning up to 3 to 4 ft tonight.

Southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front will start veering W to
NW as cold front drops south heading into Mon morning. Gusts should
reach up over 20 kts, but expect sub-SCA conditions to hold.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/RH