-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
477
FXUS62 KILM 092338
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
738 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight brining only scattered
showers and storms as well as ending the heat heading into
Monday. Rain-free and seasonable conditions for much of the week
will give way to a late week increase in humidity and rain
chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
For the early evening update have increased pops somewhat across
the board for later this evening as the system moving in from the
northwest moves across. Essentially all guidance...global and
high resolution are showing activity moving across quickly from
northwest to southeast either side of midnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A front will drop into the area tonight into Monday as a series of
shortwaves at H5 move through the area.  This should produce
isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening into Monday
with the greatest chances for rain spreading from north to south
with time.  Lows tonight will fall to the upper 60s to around 70.
Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather expected Monday night with a front stalled just
offshore but still enough mid level ascent to lead to low level
upglide. There`s a pretty good indication that the showers and
storms will be focused along a narrow axis, and this will hinge upon
the position of the boundary. Some guidance paints the high QPF
along the immediate coast whereas others keep it over the water. A
weak wave of low pressure should turn low level winds offshore
Tuesday allowing for dry air to advect in from the NW, aided further
by the mid level trough axis swinging through. Tuesday`s highs will
be near normal whereas both nights will be just a few degrees on the
cool side.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Much of the long term should be rather quiet as weak westerly mid
level flow goes light and variable while the surface pattern grows
similarly mushy.  Early period temperatures will be near normal
while late period highs run a few degrees above climatology. Some
isolated convection may be able to develop along the seabreeze
beginning Thursday or Friday. More synoptic scale moisture advection
may come out of the south over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions currently across all areas will give way to an
area of showers and thunderstorms moving across either side of
midnight. While lower ceilings and visibilities will be
transitory with this initial round more prevailing MVFR
conditions may settle in for some time afterwards.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the period though restrictions are
possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms, mainly Mon-Tue
and again late in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
SW winds to 15 to 20 KT late this afternoon will decrease to
about 10 KT by Monday as they veer to the NW. Seas will run 2 to
3 FT.

Monday night through Friday... A weak wave of low pressure passes by
along an offshore frontal boundary Tuesday. Thereafter a well-
defined pressure pattern will be hard to come by. High pressure will
be in it`s normal location across the western Atlantic but the
lingering troughiness from the decaying frontal boundary appears to
prevent it from extending westward into the U.S. much. As such winds
will be capped at 10 knots and a pronounced direction will be hard
to forecast. Seas will run 2-3 ft generally in a shorter period wind
wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...15
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM