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083
FXUS62 KILM 081839
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
239 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be over the area through early Sunday. A cold
front will cross the coastal Carolinas Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure will dominate the weather Tuesday through
Friday, though most days will still carry the usual afternoon
shower and thunderstorm chances. A cold front will move into
the region late Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Quiet weather is expected through much of the near term period
though Sunday afternoon should some increase in clouds and a small
chance for showers and storms as a cold front approaches from the
NW.  Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to around 70 with highs
Sunday in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold front moves through the area Sunday night, with lobes of
vorticity aloft breaking off from the main upper low way up in
Maine. This brings enough forcing and better confidence for showers
and thunderstorms in the earlier portion of the overnight hours
prior to 06Z. Lows in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s at the coast.

Cold front moves offshore by Monday morning, and stalls out from
there. This keeps in a slight chance of showers and storms along the
coast, but the inland areas should be drying out. Cooler air sets in
behind the front, with highs only reaching the mid-to-upper 80s.

By Monday night, a deeper trough axis begins its approach through
the Carolinas, which increases the upper forcing again. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase again, though modestly. Better chances
are at the coast where the stalled front offshore is closer. Lows in
the low-to-mid 60s inland, upper 60s to near 70 at the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The deeper trough continues to swing through the Carolinas and push
offshore by late Tuesday. This will help push the stalled offshore
front further south and east into Florida and the western Atlantic,
while surface high pressure to the north settles in. This dries
things out a bit Tuesday and Wednesday, but a slight chance of
convection still remains, primarily from the seabreeze.

Southwesterly flow gets a bit deeper by Thursday, as a broad upper
low moves into the Gulf. This actually helps to push that old
frontal boundary northward, back to near northeast SC. This
increases the afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly across the SC Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions. This
will feel quite muggy and summery.

Highs each day in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the 60s become
the lower 70s as the week goes on.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Light N winds will
likely shift around to S to SE by evening, particularly nearer the
coast. Light winds are expected overnight with S to SW winds of 5 to
10 KT expected AFT 13Z Sunday.  Fog potential looks limited
overnight but is non-zero.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected into Sunday afternoon.  Restrictions
possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms Sunday night
through about midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Sunday...Light and variable winds will become S to SW
at 5 to 10 KT overnight before increasing to 10 to 15 KT Sunday.
Seas will run about 2 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southwesterly winds immediately
ahead of a cold front start veering northwesterly and then
northeasterly by Monday morning as the front moves through. Gusts up
to 20-22kts expected, but that decreases considerably after the
front moves through. Variable winds at 5-10kts likely Monday
afternoon through Tuesday night, before finally settling on SSE by
Wednesday and Thursday. Seas 2-3ft initially, but decrease slightly
to around 2ft after the front and remain that way through the
extended period.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31/IGB