-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
197
FXUS62 KILM 070503
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
103 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms will increase this evening ahead of
a cold front. After the front moves offshore, cooler and drier
air is expected through the weekend. Afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances return by early next week, with
temperatures gradually warming.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast early this
morning will become more widespread as the cold front gradually
approaches the area from the west. Remnant showers inland should
end around sunrise with ongoing showers near the coast possible
through early morning. Updated PoP and temps with the 1 AM
update.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A 500 mb trough axis was located from eastern TN southward across
AL and into the Gulf early this afternoon, and coupled with
surface high pressure well off the Carolina coast, was resulting
in deep SW flow across the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing early this afternoon across the Pee Dee and Williamsburg/Georgetown
counties should continue to blossom in the unstable airmass,
although they should remain scattered in nature. Convection
should become a bit more organized this evening/overnight as a
northern shortwave begins to push a surface front, draped across
central KY and western TN as of 18Z, towards the area. Exact
timing and extent of this second round of convection remains
uncertain, as convection- allowing models are offering varying
solutions. We do remain in a marginal risk for severe storms,
with damaging wind gusts possible with some of the stronger
cells. It appears the front may hang up along the coast Friday
morning until a subsequent shortwave gives it a final push by
18Z, but am expecting Friday to be dry and mostly sunny as deep
dry air filters in above 750 mb. Max temps Friday will stay
above climo with highs around 90 away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front over the area Friday night should quickly zip offshore
by Saturday morning. Drier, cooler air will continue to stream
in overnight. Lows Friday night in the low-to-mid 60s.

Lovely day on the way for Saturday, with high pressure moving
in from the Deep South. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Lows
Saturday night should be 2-3 degrees warmer than the previous
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure gets pushed southward Sunday, with increasing clouds
throughout the day ahead of another cold front. Most of the day
Sunday should be free of rain chances. Pre-frontal warming
brings the highs up to the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the
coast.

Cold front should push through the area Sunday night, with rain
chances increasing. Though precipitable water values kick up to
above 1.8 inches, the column doesn`t look as moist as it could be,
so not expecting very widespread showers and storms with this one.
Lows Sunday night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Front should be offshore by Monday morning, but may linger there
through at least Tuesday. While cooler, drier air comes in Monday,
we may still have enough mesoscale features in the atmosphere to
allow for the typical afternoon showers and storms. Front gradually
pushes further offshore throughout the week, but other features like
the seabreeze and the Piedmont trough become a bit more prominent,
which keeps around the daily shower and storm chances in the
afternoon.

Highs inland in the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday become more like
the lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Highs at the coast
generally stick to the mid 80s. Lows in the low-to-mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Convection early this morning likely to bring brief periods of
MVFR (possible down to IFR VIS) prior to sunrise. Inland areas
likely to be clear of showers by 12Z, but may see a few
lingering low clouds through mid morning. Showers more likely
along the coast through sunrise. Shower chances continue through
the morning as the cold front struggles to push offshore. VFR
late this afternoon through Friday night.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected on Saturday. Restrictions
possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday
into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Enhanced SW flow will continue tonight ahead
of a cold front, that is expected to reach the coast around
daybreak Friday. The front is expected to stall along the coast
Friday morning, resulting in continued SW flow until it gets a
push during the afternoon. Winds will shift from SW to NW behind
the front, but that shift appears as though it will occur late
in the day. The 1-2 ft SE swell will persist at 7-8 seconds,
along with a SW winds wave of 2-3 ft every 5-6 seconds.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Cold front moves through the
area Friday night, causing winds at 10-15kts to veer from the
southwest to the northeast by Saturday morning. Pressure gradient
loosens and winds slow to 5-10kts, gradually veering back to
the southwest by Sunday. Gradient tightens again Sunday night
ahead of another cold front, causing a few gusts up to 20kts.
After the front moves through by Monday morning, winds veer
northwesterly before decreasing back down to 5-10kts later in
the day. From there, variable winds Monday and Tuesday. Seas
generally 2-3ft, with a few 4ft waves possible out 20nm from
shore during the frontal passage Sunday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/SRP