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005
FXUS62 KMHX 121359
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
959 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the area today and Thursday while
an area of low pressure meanders off the Southeast coast. The
high pulls offshore Friday with the low lifting off the coast. A
cold front will push across the area Saturday with high
pressure building into the region in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 10 AM Wed...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update. The upper trough will push farther
offshore today with NW flow aloft gradually becoming Wly through
the day while sfc high pressure builds into the Mid- Atlantic
states. Dry conditions expected today with a significant
subsidence inversion around 700 mb. Steep low level lapse rates
will lead to sct-bkn Cu this afternoon and some hi-res guidance
is suggesting isolated sea breeze showers however the saturated
layer is shallow (~100mb) with a significantly dry sub-cloud
layer, so not expecting any precip to reach the ground and will
keep PoPs below mentionable. Temps will be close to climo with
highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s/lower 80s along the
coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...Sfc high pressure centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast continues to ridge into the Southeast with
zonal flow aloft keeping dry conditions across the area. Fog
potential look low (href probs less than 10%) despite light/calm
winds and generally clear skies, but Ci may be thick enough to
limit max radiational cooling. Lows expected in the mid 60s
inland to around 70 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:

- Dry through Thursday night as high pressure dominates.

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday bringing
slight chances (10-20%) of rain along the coast

- Mostly dry cold front moves through in the weekend

- Dry start to next week

Thursday... Ridging continues, leading to partly cloudy skies. Highs
near 90 inland, low to mid 80s for beaches. Slight chance of rain
for Crystal Coast and coastal waters, along with SOBX, as a sfc low
to our south strengthens and approaches.

A plume of tropical moisture originating in the Gulf of Mexico is
traversing across the FL peninsula as of 3AM Wednesday along a
shortwave. After crossing FL, a sfc low redevelops and will
strengthen off the SC/GA/FL coast, where it becomes a bit better
organized. Thursday the low will strengthen and start accelerating
NE`ward, located up well offshore of the NC/SC border along the gulf
stream.

Friday through Sunday... Complicated setup in store, with a weak low
trekking off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through
the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward, likely
along the gulf stream. Decent model spread exists on the exact
location of the low as it approaches ENC. Most likely outcome is the
center of the low remains around 200 miles offshore as it passes to
our east. This outcome would result in minimal impacts for ENC. It
is worth noting that some ensemble members, and the most recent SREF
run show an approach closer to the coast Friday into Saturday. If
this scenario plays out, we would be looking at hazardous marine
conditions, gusty conditions, and rain, of which highest chances
would be for the coast. Trough and associated cold front which
initially looked to be moving through mid day Saturday has sped up a
bit, and will now be moving through early Saturday morning. While
likely to remain dry, this front will help push the low along,
making it accelerate further NE and keeping any impacts from the low
relatively short-lived. A consequence of the earlier frontal passage
is a reduced heat risk. Friday now looks to be a tad bit warmer than
Saturday, with apparent temperatures in the mid 90s.

Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick hitting
back door cold front moving in from the north Saturday allowing Tds
to briefly drop to the 50s and 60s.

Monday through Wednesday... Strong ridging brings generally clear
skies and warm temps in the low to mid 90s inland through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 650 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through the TAF
period. Sct-Bkn afternoon Cu expected this afternoon with cigs
around 5-6kft but not expecting any precip. HREF guidance
showing chances for fog at less than 10 percent but cannot rule
out patchy shallow fog as winds will be light. High clouds may
help limit radiational cooling if they are thick enough as
well.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the long
term, but if a sfc low currently projected to remain well
offshore Friday-Saturday draws closer to the coast, rain chances
and lower ceilings would become more favorable.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Wed...Latest obs show NE-E winds 5-15 kt north of
Hatteras and 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt south of Hatteras, with
seas 2-4 ft. Sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic
today will slide offshore this evening. Mainly easterly winds
around 15 kt or less will continue through tonight. Seas will
be around 2-4 ft with a relative short period 6-7 sec SE swell
and a 4-5 sec wind chop.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Long term starts off benign, with waves
2-3 ft and easterly winds gusting to 15-20 kts Thursday. Friday
through the weekend we have a lot of uncertainty, as the
forecast highly depends on how the sfc low developing off the SE
coast over the next 12-24 hours progresses. Potential for SCA
gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through Sunday if the sfc
low approaches closer to our nearshore waters, but confidence
remains low at this point. Most likely outcome is the center of
the low remains about 200 miles offshore along the Gulf Stream.
Cold front moves through early Saturday, pushing the low away to
the NE Saturday. A secondary back door cold front moving
through will then move through later Saturday. This sequence of
events will result in rapid wind changes, and brief periods of
gusty conditions right along and behind the fronts. Early next
week pleasant boating conditions return, with waves 2-3 ft and
E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high pressure dominates.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...CQD/SK/RJ