-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
277
FXUS61 KOKX 161801
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
201 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves across the area today and stays offshore while
remaining in control through most of the week. The high shifts
south off the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the week into the
weekend as disturbances pass to the north Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast remains track this afternoon with only minor
adjustments made to some of the hourly forecast elements.

High pressure is positioned over the area today, gradually
sliding offshore through the evening and into tonight. Mostly
clear skies with comfortable conditions are expected today with
a light east wind gradually shifting to the southeast and south
this afternoon. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s for
much of the area.

Low level moisture gradually increases tonight with a southerly
flow advecting higher dew points into the area as the high
shifts into the Western Atlantic. This may result in the
development of some low stratus for parts of the Lower Hudson
Valley or along the immediate coast but confidence in occurrence
and coverage is low. Lows will be in the upper 50s for interior
and eastern portions of the area with the NYC metro only falling
into the low to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The large scale ridge begins to build overhead and strengthen
into Monday with surface high pressure remaining offshore. A
continued south to southwest flow will continue to allow for
increased moisture advection along with the advection of warmer
air. Highs on Monday will begin to increase a bit with western
areas climbing into the upper 80s to possibly near 90. Long
Island and Southern CT will be in the low to middle 80s. Mostly
clear skies and dry conditions continue. Lows Monday night will
be in the middle 60s to near 70 near the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected Tuesday through next
  Saturday.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index
  values of 95 to potentially around 105 during this time.

* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the upper
  60s to the mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the 60s.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure will be offshore to our east and
remain in control through most of the week resulting in a persistent
S/SW flow. Aloft, an upper level ridge continues to build over the
northeast US. Latest global guidance continues to show 500mb heights
peaking on Thursday around 598dam to 600dam. To give an idea of
how anomalous this is, the highest 500mb height the OKX
sounding has ever recorded is 598dam per the SPC Sounding
Climatology Page and the highest ever recorded in June is
597dam. This set up will bring long duration heat and humidity
to the area starting Tuesday, likely peaking Thursday and
potentially continuing into Saturday. Heat Advisories will
likely be needed with this event, with the potential for
Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings.

Forecast highs were derived by blending the previous forecast with
the NBM and NBM 50th percentile. Overall this nudged up highs for
most areas from the previous forecast. Highs in the 90s with
dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s will result in heat index values
from 95 to about 105. Given the S/SW flow, the areas that will see
the highest temperatures will be northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and interior CT. The flow will keep Long Island, coastal CT
and even parts of NYC a bit lower, but still likely Advisory
criteria for at least some days. Along with hot and humid
temperatures during the daylight hours, overnight lows will not give
much relief as they will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The
best chance to break any record highs looks to be Thursday. There
will also likely be record high low temperatures on Thursday as well.

With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take
precautions to protect one`s health, particularly those without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The onset of the heat
will be occurring as the transition from spring to summer occurs,
with the solstice Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT.

The upper level ridge begins to flatten Thursday and the flow
becomes zonal Friday. At the same time, high pressure gets
suppressed farther south. With the approach of a surface trough,
chances of showers/thunderstorms return Friday and continue through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure off the coast will remain in place through
Sunday.

SE-S flow 8-12 kt should diminish this evening and veer more S
overnight. S-SW winds then increase to 5-10 kt Mon morning and
then to around 10 kt with G15-20kt at the metro and coastal
terminals by 16Z Mon.

Still a chance of some low stratus development with IFR
cigs in and around the NYC Metro area overnight. Confidence
remains low to medium and so have continued mention via TEMPO,
generally from about 06Z-10Z but possibly as early as 03Z. Any
low stratus should clear to VFR before the morning push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low to medium confidence in low stratus development overnight
with IFR cig potential.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR. S-SW winds G20-25kt,
diminishing during the evening.

Tuesday through Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are
expected on all waters through the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The moderate risk of rip currents continues both Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JC/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BG/MW
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...