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778
FXUS61 KOKX 150738
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the northwest today, moving overhead
Sunday morning and offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in
control through late next week. A few weak disturbances may
approach from the north next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front is currently moving through the area with the axis of
an upper level trough approaching just to our west. Only
lingering light rain showers are expected early this morning for
the eastern half of the area, with the whole area likely dry
around sunrise. Have added fog to the forecast for some western
locations where fog has developed under clearing skies.

As the upper level trough shifts east this morning, heights
rise as a ridge builds over the eastern US. At the surface, high
pressure builds in from the northwest. The airmass building in
will be drier and a bit cooler than the past several days. Highs
today will likely top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. With
dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s, the air will have a
comfortable feel.

Given the dry airmass and mostly clear skies/some thin high clouds,
radiational cooling should help the usual cool spots get down to the
upper 40s/low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Heights continue to rise aloft through Monday night. High pressure
at the surface will move overhead early Sunday and then offshore by
Sunday evening, but will remain in control through the week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy
rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday
afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than Saturday,
with the same low dewpoints. As the high shifts offshore later on
Sunday a return flow sets up and moisture increases. Dewpoints
return to the mid 60s on Monday, with highs in the 80s for most.
This will likely be the last day before a heat wave sets up for the
rest of the week.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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**Key Point**

* A long duration heat wave is expected during most of next week
  beginning on Tuesday and lasting until Friday or Saturday. Heat
  index values of greater than 95 degrees are expected for much of
  the area during this time.

A strengthening deep layer ridge will be positioned over the East
Coast by Tuesday with a surface high pressure system over the
Western Atlantic. Low level flow on the west side of the high
pressure will allow for a southerly or southwesterly flow through
much of the extended period. This will allow for the advection of
both low level moisture and warm air.

The upper level ridge continues strengthening in intensity through
the middle and end of the week, eventually peaking in strength by
Thursday with 500mb heights between 594 and 600dam. This highly
anomalous strength in the upper level ridge will allow for a
prolonged heat event to take place over the entire Northeast. By
Tuesday, surface highs will be in the 90s for much of the interior
portions of the area with coastal locations in the middle to upper
80s.

Heat persists through the week, eventually allowing
temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 90s for interior
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and southern CT. It
would not be that surprising if some locations hit 100 degrees,
especially into Thursday and Friday. Because this is a fairly early
season heat wave, relatively cooler waters only in the 60s will
shelter Long Island and immediate coastal Connecticut from
experiencing the worst of the heat, but may result in some enhanced
surface moisture over these areas. Heat index values will likely be
greater than 95 degrees during each afternoon from Tuesday through
at least Friday for everywhere except Long Island. This may
eventually facilitate heat headlines.

Given the duration and intensity of the anticipated heat, it is
important to take precautions to protect one`s health, particularly
those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-
sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by
the extent of this heat as well.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front pushes through the terminals into early morning.
High pressure then builds into the area from the north into Sunday.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance of
localized brief MVFR/IFR cigs or visibilities before 10Z for coastal
terminals.

Winds may be light and variable before the cold front provides a
mainly N/NW flow around 10kt. There is also a chance for a few gusts
15-20kt behind the cold front, but that is more likely after 12Z.
Gusts diminish in the later afternoon Saturday as high pressure
works in from the Great Lakes.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Northerly wind gusts could develop sooner than forecast behind the
cold front overnight, but should not be frequent until late morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Waves slowly build through tonight, but will likely remain below
5 ft. With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions
are expected on all waters this weekend thru early next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Rip current conditions improve today, with a moderate risk as winds
shift offshore. The moderate risk will continue on Sunday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT