-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
450
FXUS61 KOKX 131151
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain between a frontal system to the northwest and
a departing high pressure area to the northeast. The associated cold
front approaches Monday and moves across Monday night into early
Tuesday. The frontal boundary then stays within the vicinity of the
region through midweek. A cold front may approach the area by
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The local area will be in between high pressure southeast Nova
Scotia and a frontal system traversing slowly within SE Canada.
The warm front is already well north and east of the region.
The local region has light easterly flow today overall.

Not expecting much in the way of measurable rainfall today.
Think that most locations will not receive measurable rain.
However, multiple CAMs indicate as well as more larger scale
coarse resolution models small discrete areas of QPF or
reflectivity traversing the local area. From BUFKIT sounding
analysis, there is still drier air between 5 and 25 kft above
the ground. From 5kft to the ground, there is enough depth of
moisture to have some drizzle or rain sprinkles. The easterly
flow is helping trap moisture in the low levels underneath an
inversion around 5kft.

Otherwise, NBM has been too aggressive with its POPs for showers and
thunderstorms. CAMs show a general lack of convection in the local
area. Lowered manually the NBM POPs and now just in and around NW
Orange has the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

For temperatures, used the NBM but manually lowered for locations
within Southern Connecticut and Eastern Long Island. These locations
will be on the lower end of high temperatures in the upper 70s while
the warmest spots are in NE NJ and portions of the interior with
highs in the upper 80s.

With the humid airmass, heat indices or apparent temperatures still
will be a few degrees warmer than the actual temperatures. However,
the max heat indices are mostly in the lower 90s, below heat
advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the flow becomes more southeast. Clouds remain abundant
and some patchy fog and drizzle may develop along parts of the
region. Otherwise, small chance of a shower or thunderstorm to the
northwest by Orange County NY.

Min temperatures were from NBM ranging only from the upper
60s to lower 70s.

For early next week, frontal system from SE Canada approaches with
an associated cold front. This cold front approaches from Monday and
moves into the area Monday night. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase across a larger fraction of the region. The
front slows down as it exits early Tuesday. Continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Downward trend in POPs Tuesday into Tuesday night as cold front
pushes farther south of Long Island.

Airmass gradually getting warmer early next week with synoptic flow
becoming more southerly. Highs more in the 80s with some places
reaching near 90 for Tuesday. Corresponding heat indices get more
near the low to mid 90s, especially Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Key Points***

*While still some uncertainty, there is the potential for a heat
wave to continue Wednesday through Friday for many areas with max h
eat index values between 95 and 100 (2-day Heat Advisory Criteria)
for Wednesday and Friday and 100 to 105 possible for Thursday (1-day
Heat Advisory criteria).

*Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

A frontal boundary will likely stall just offshore and linger in the
area Wednesday into Thursday. A frontal system may then impact the
area later in the week. Aloft, the pattern stays the same through
the period. Although we are under some high heights, we are somewhat
on the eastern end of a broad upper level trough centered over
central Canada and few shortwaves likely pass through.

With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of
moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high
temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave, with heat index
of 95-100 currently expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 100 to 105
for many spots on Thursday. However, there still is uncertainty
especially given the potential for convection and slight
inconsistencies in a late week frontal system among the guidance.

Too early to talk specifics when it comes to severe or flooding
concerns with the aforementioned convection. These details will be
ironed over the next few days. There is plenty of moisture around
with pwats 1.50-2.00+ for much of the period so any convection that
does develop will likely be able to produce heavy downpours. As for
severe, while we are pretty unstable, shear looks weak through much
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure remains in place offshore through Sunday,
slowly drifting east through the day and into Sunday night.

MVFR to IFR conditions slowly improve this morning, with
conditions not returning to VFR for many places until this
afternoon. Eastern areas such as KGON and KISP may only improve
to MVFR. MVFR conditions move back only a few hours after the
return to VFR in most spot, generally after 00Z Monday, but
could occur earlier than this. Visibilities may also come down,
late tonight, with lower visibilities across the aforementioned
eastern terminals. there is a great deal of uncertainty with
the ceiling and visibility forecast through the period.

SE winds today at around 10 kt. There may be isolated gusts to
around 15 kt during the late morning into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected due to changes in flight categories through
the forecast period.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower in the morning and early afternoon,
becoming VFR thereafter, except MVFR or lower in any showers
and thunderstorms that move through in the afternoon and
overnight.

Tuesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Showers or
thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather statement for patchy dense fog until 10AM EDT for
ocean waters between Moriches Inlet and Montauk Point.
Visibilities will be reduced below a mile at times,

Weak pressure gradient continues with sub-SCA conditions on all
waters through early week.

With a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves likely remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday through Thursday. A
strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday night will allow seas to build to 5 ft, especially from
Fire Island to Montauk Point.  Additionally, a relatively active
pattern is expected next week with chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms for several days. Winds and waves will be higher in
any storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around a quarter to half inch of rain from late tonight through
Tuesday with locally higher amounts.

Possible minor flooding Monday into Monday night. Marginal risk
for flash flooding. PWATS get slightly above 2 inches. Parallel
flow low to mid levels allowing training of cells. HREF showing
potential for hourly rainfall rates getting to around 1 inch per
hour Monday evening.

In the long term, localized hydrologic impacts are possible due to
thunderstorms from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For Atlantic Ocean beaches, the rip current risk today and
Monday is moderate with an onshore flow near 10 kt, a 3 ft swell
from the southeast at a 7 to 8 sec, and added onshore swells,
one of which is a long period swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP/JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...