-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
700
FXUS61 KRNK 061533
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1133 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist airmass will remain over the area through
today promoting showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will
move through the region this evening, with drier and cooler
weather to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1130 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Locally dense fog early this morning.

2) A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon east of the
Blue Ridge.

Forecast remains on track. A pronounced midlevel trough will progress
eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it
will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal
trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in
the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud
breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support
MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm
development is expected along the Blue Ridge...moving east with
the mean wind. There will be some increase in midlevel flow
over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near
500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line
segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph
gusts).

Models are in good agreement on timing having best chance of
showers in the mountains through 18z/2PM, then developing into
thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge and moving into the piedmont
after 18z/2PM. Solar insolation east of the Blue Ridge will lead
to MLCAPEs into 1500-2000 J/kg range this afternoon over the
Piedmont, and with the frontal convergence along with some 0-6km
bulk shear around 20kts, a few storms may bring some gusty to
locally damaging winds. The HRRR Neural Network Convective
Hazard forecast suggest strongest storm chances will be east of
the Blue Ridge, with more of a bullseye around Lynchburg to
Richmond in the 2pm-7pm time frame.

Precipitable water stays elevated through the afternoon, but starts
to fall back to normal to below normal levels of 0.8 to 1.4 inches
in the mountains by dusk. Even though storm motion of 15-25 mph from
the west exists, some locally heavy downpours could cause isolated
flooding issues, though heavy rainfall amounts have been very
isolated the past 48 hours.

The main front tracks east of the forecast area this evening
with showers/storms ending in the mountains by late afternoon
and the piedmont this evening. A secondary front could produce
an isolated shower over southeast WV after 00z/Thu but low
chance.

Overnight, expect clearing skies and patchy fog as winds behind this
system are going to stay under 10 mph, but may be enough mixing to
prevent widespread fog.

Temperatures today should manage to get into the 80s east of the
mountains with 70s in the mountains, maybe around 80 New River
Valley.

Tonight, the cooler air lags a bit, but should be in the 50s in the
mountains with 60s east.

Forecast confidence is average on all elements.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Drier and cooler weather through Saturday.
2. Chances for showers and storms return Sunday.

An upper level low will sit over southeastern Canada through the
weekend, with troughing extending into the eastern US. Surface high
pressure will spread over the area from the west Friday, bringing an
end to showers from the frontal passage Thursday. This surface high
remains overhead through the first half of the weekend. Another cold
front approaches and then crosses the area Sunday, increasing
chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon, with the greatest
probabilities along and west of the Blue Ridge, as mainly westerly
winds will limit potential for storms in the east. With the surface
high blocking much of the greater moisture from the Gulf, not
thinking as much potential for heavy rain as earlier in the week.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday,
with continued northwesterly flow aloft from the upper low to the
north of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

 1. Drier weather to start the week, but possible mountain
showers.
2. Cooler Monday and Tuesday, warming temperatures
after midweek.
3. Showers and storms possible Wednesday.

Following the frontal passage on Sunday, cooler and drier surface
high pressure pushes into the area from the north. This will bring a
decrease in temperatures and dewpoints, and Monday and Tuesday will
be cooler than normal. The front looks to stall across the
southeastern US Atlantic coast through the first half of the work
week, and general troughing aloft will keep chances for afternoon
showers in the mountains Monday and possibly Tuesday. Ridging builds
in overhead after Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to start
climbing back towards normal for the middle of the work week. An
upper trough tracks eastward towards the area, with its associated
cold front reaching the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians
sometime Wednesday or Thursday, though long range deterministic
models differ on specific timing.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 644 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers/few TSRA approaching BLF/LWB by 12-14z, but moreso late
morning. Scattered to broken line of convection to move
east/southeast into late afternoon. Will put VCTS in but tempo
with highest chance for showers/storms, so looking at 15-18z
mountains to 19-22 for the piedmont.

Aside from storms lower cigs will lift to mainly VFR except
sub-VFR in storms during the day. Winds turn from the southwest
to west as a front moves through. A few gusts to 20kts possible
ahead of the front.

Any shower/storms should be east of us by 00z with VFR through
06z/Fri.

Forecast confidence is average on all elements.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR
conditions behind the front. VFR through the extended period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP