872
FXUS65 KABQ 082345 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A significant flash flood threat is expected beginning Sunday
afternoon across northeast and east central NM as higher moisture
behind a backdoor front combined with a disturbance moving in from
the southwest, will set the stage for widespread showers and storms
along and east of the central mountain chain. Considerable to
destructive burn scar flash flooding is becoming more likely across
the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Showers and storms will continue across northeast areas Monday as
the low moves through the region. Some severe storms could be
possible across southeast areas Monday afternoon. High pressure then
develops over the region Tuesday. A few showers and storms will
still be possible across northeast NM Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure intensifies overhead Wednesday and Thursday resulting in
little if any storm coverage and extremely hot temperatures once
again. Another disturbance moves across northern NM Friday possibly
bringing some showers and storms to northern areas with some
stronger winds elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A slightly drier atmosphere prevails over northern and central NM,
with surface dewpoint temperatures generally 5-10 degrees less than
24hrs ago. Also working against a repeat of yesterday is pressure
heights coming down a couple decameters, which should result in high
temperatures that are 1-3 degree less than yesterday`s. Virga is
still possible west of the central mountain chain this afternoon,
but all of the modeling for showers and storms are near and east of
where the current crop is growing, which is along/east of a Raton to
Santa Rosa to Ruidoso line. Strong/erratic wind gusts are the main
convective hazard today, with a limited hail threat and very little
wetting rainfall.

A moisture-rich backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains
overnight and bank up against the central mountain chain, setting
the stage for a robust round of storms Sunday afternoon that will
have surface dewpoint temps in the 50s to work with. Convective
initiation is expected along the central mountain chain mid day
Sunday, with maturation between 21-00Z. In addition to upslope flow
provided by the backdoor front, added forcing will come from an
approaching and weak Pacific low. 12Z model data 700-500mb mean
winds suggest relatively slow northeast movement of storms, but will
be erratic or even near-stationary over the Sangre De Cristos where
the 500mb ridge axis will be slower to break-down. This is the main
area of concern for flash flooding given impressive instability and
sustained upslope inflow. The 12Z NAM continued with run-to-run
consistency showing considerable qpf across the Sangre De Cristos
late Sunday, which then shifts east with time Sunday evening and
overnight across the adjacent highlands and into the plains. Even
the most recent GFS gets in on the qpf party and provides a very wet
solution as PWATs surge well above normal Sunday night. Will go
ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch, mainly for the HPCC burn scar
and areas downstream, with the potential for eastward expansion by
the midnight shift given more model run-to-run consistency. Worthy
of note is that the WPC did include much of northeast NM, including
the HPCC burn scar, in a day2 slight risk for excessive rainfall.
Our storm total qpf shows 1-1.5" over the HPCC from Sunday through
Monday, with higher amounts over the highlands and east central
plains in excess of 2.0". Those are generalized amounts and for
higher-end point totals we`d need to double those. So, definitely an
enhanced risk for flash flooding and potential for major impacts
on/near the HPCC late Sunday through Monday. The flash flood risk
will rank highest through Sunday night, but there is also a severe
threat Sunday afternoon/evening along/east of the central mountain
chain, with the highest chances across the east central plains where
the necessary combination of shear and instability will reside,
although the shear is marginal for severe. Locales from Fort Sumner
to Clovis and Portales south through Roosevelt County should be on
the lookout for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Convection west of the central mountain chain on Sunday will be of
the drier variety and favor strong/erratic wind gusts with the
potential for dry lightning. Outflow from storms along the central
mountain chain Sunday afternoon/evening will create strong/gusty
east canyon winds into the RGV Sunday night and will transport more
favorable low level moisture westward, setting the stage for
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and storms could still be ongoing across northeast NM Monday
morning as a newly developed upper low spins over the region The
coverage of showers and storms in northeast NM Monday afternoon
could be lower than currently forecasted. There will be good lift
and dynamics in the area due to being in the vicinity of the upper
level trough; however, lots of cloud cover, much cooler
temperatures, and low instability will be present in the wake of
Sunday evening and night`s showers and storms. The question will be
if the atmosphere can recover enough instability to produce another
round of showers and storms Monday afternoon and early evening.
Across southeast NM, there could be enough clearing to build up
instability for some showers and storms during the afternoon and
early evening. The NAM depicts this with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and
also has some effective bulk shear values of around 30 kts which
means some of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to
severe. Activity will exit east into Texas shortly after sunset
Monday with clearing skies and mild temperatures overnight.

The story beginning Tuesday returns once again to the hotter
temperatures and eventually extreme heat. Upper level high pressure
redevelops over the AZ/NM border Tuesday at around 591 to 592 dm.
Temperatures across most of the lower elevations will heat back up
to the low to mid 90s with near triple digits across southern NM.
Temperatures will be cooler and in the 80s across northeast NM due
to possible afternoon showers and storms from a trailing upper level
trough on the backside of the departed upper low over the southern
plains. The upper level high moves over the state and intensifies to
595 dm on Wednesday allowing temperatures to heat up even more.
Widespread 90s are expected across lower elevations with Albuquerque
and Farmington possibly getting to 100 degrees again. Socorro and
Roswell could get close to 105 and satisfying their Heat Advisory
criteria. The hot temperatures look to peak on Thursday as the high
overhead intensifies to 596 to 597 dm. Albuquerque and Farmington
are forecast to reach the low 100s with mid to upper 100s possible
across the lower RGV and southeast NM. Some mid level moisture ahead
of a Pacific low moving into southern CA could allow for a few virga
showers and dry storms to develop in the high terrain Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon, but mid level subsidence will help to limit
this.

The aforementioned Pacific low looks to weaken and open up as
it moves towards the Four Corners Friday squashing the upper high
south. This will help to cool temperatures a little areawide.
Midlevel moisture will help result in some afternoon and evening
virga showers and dry storms across northwest and north central NM
with some wetter showers and storms across northeast NM due to
higher low level moisture. Elsewhere, stronger south to southwest
winds look possible due to deep daytime mixing tapping into the
stronger 500 to 700 mb winds aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Aviation weather concerns will center around thunderstorms in
north central, northeastern and east central New Mexico for the
early part of this evening and then more-so on Sunday afternoon
into the evening. Storms today are poorly organized, but have been
throwing out strong downburst winds in excess of 40 to 55 kt. This
will continue through sunset when storms will decay and die off. A
weak frontal boundary will move into eastern New Mexico late
tonight into early Sunday morning, bringing moisture along with
it. This could lead to some MVFR ceilings (below 3000 ft) in
northeastern areas of New Mexico, but they shouldn`t last long
(generally 09/1200-1600UTC). New storms will develop Sunday
afternoon with more gusto, better organization and heavier
rainfall. Some storms will be capable of turning severe with hail,
damaging downburst winds and heavy downpours. The western half of
New Mexico will stay VFR with generally light to moderate
afternoon breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Hot, dry and unstable conditions persist across much of the area
with a crop of anemic showers and storms across central/eastern NM
that will favor strong/erratic wind gusts over wetting rainfall
through this evening. A backdoor front will provide much needed
moisture on Sun/Mon for wetting storms that will favor areas
along/east of the central mountain chain. Soaking rains are
forecast, with the potential for flash flooding on the HPCC burn
scar and a lower threat on the McBride. Cooler conditions with
higher humidity will prevail Monday, especially across eastern NM,
as a weak Pacific low moves east over northern NM. Chances for
wetting storms will continue along/east of the central mountain
chain Tuesday as an upper level ridge strengthens over the Desert SW
and shifts east into western NM, bringing the return of hot, dry and
unstable conditions. High haines values will then work east across
the area through Thursday as temperatures soar with the ridge
pumping up directly over the state. A Pacific low is forecast to
impact the area next Fri/Sat with chances for wetting storms and
increased winds. Winds may reach critical threshold across western
NM Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  93  61  87 /   0   5  10  10
Dulce...........................  46  89  49  78 /   0  20  20  40
Cuba............................  53  84  52  77 /   0  10  30  40
Gallup..........................  52  86  49  85 /   0  10   5  10
El Morro........................  55  82  52  80 /   0  10  20  20
Grants..........................  54  86  50  83 /   0  10  20  30
Quemado.........................  55  81  52  83 /   5  20  30  20
Magdalena.......................  63  84  57  81 /  20  20  40  40
Datil...........................  59  80  53  81 /  10  30  30  30
Reserve.........................  48  85  45  90 /  10  20  20  20
Glenwood........................  62  90  60  93 /  10  20  20  10
Chama...........................  46  82  47  69 /   0  30  30  60
Los Alamos......................  62  83  58  73 /   0  30  40  60
Pecos...........................  56  80  52  70 /  10  70  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  49  79  49  65 /   0  50  60  70
Red River.......................  45  71  45  60 /  10  70  70  70
Angel Fire......................  39  74  42  62 /  10  70  70  70
Taos............................  52  83  52  68 /   5  40  50  60
Mora............................  50  76  48  68 /  10  70  80  70
Espanola........................  59  89  59  78 /   0  30  40  50
Santa Fe........................  61  84  57  71 /   5  50  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  59  87  57  76 /   0  30  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  88  63  83 /   5  20  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  91  62  86 /   5  20  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  92  62  88 /   5  20  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  91  63  86 /   0  20  30  30
Belen...........................  64  94  58  90 /   5  20  30  30
Bernalillo......................  67  91  62  86 /   0  20  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  63  93  58  88 /   5  20  30  30
Corrales........................  64  91  60  87 /   0  20  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  63  93  58  88 /   5  20  30  30
Placitas........................  67  88  61  81 /   0  20  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  67  90  63  86 /   0  20  30  30
Socorro.........................  68  95  62  92 /  10  20  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  82  56  76 /  10  40  40  40
Tijeras.........................  63  85  57  79 /  10  40  40  40
Edgewood........................  61  85  55  79 /  10  60  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  86  51  79 /  10  60  60  50
Clines Corners..................  57  79  51  73 /  10  60  60  50
Mountainair.....................  60  84  53  80 /  10  50  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  85  51  80 /  20  50  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  65  89  58  86 /  20  30  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  59  80  52  78 /  20  50  30  50
Capulin.........................  54  73  52  67 /  20  60  70  70
Raton...........................  56  79  52  70 /  20  60  70  60
Springer........................  57  80  53  72 /  20  60  70  60
Las Vegas.......................  55  77  51  70 /  20  60  80  60
Clayton.........................  59  76  57  69 /  20  40  70  60
Roy.............................  58  78  55  70 /  20  50  80  60
Conchas.........................  63  84  57  77 /  20  50  80  60
Santa Rosa......................  63  85  56  76 /  20  50  80  60
Tucumcari.......................  63  86  58  78 /  30  30  80  60
Clovis..........................  66  88  60  79 /  30  30  80  50
Portales........................  66  91  60  81 /  30  30  80  50
Fort Sumner.....................  65  90  59  82 /  20  40  80  50
Roswell.........................  72  99  67  91 /  20  30  50  40
Picacho.........................  64  90  58  84 /  20  30  40  50
Elk.............................  62  89  54  83 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...52