593
FXUS65 KABQ 172058
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry, breezy to windy and hot weather remains one more
day Tuesday. A significant change to the weather pattern arrives
Wednesday with an influx of cooler and wetter weather invading
eastern NM. This cooler and wetter airmass will spread through
central and western NM by Thursday morning. While precipitation
chances will shoot upward all areas, the potential for more
convectively driven thunderstorms will exist more over central and
western NM Thursday and Friday afternoons. Lighter and more steady
rainfall is looking more likely through the highlands and eastern
plains of NM. Overall, this will increase the risk of burn scar
flash flooding. A strong east canyon wind in Albuquerque and Santa
Fe also looks likely Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The latest water vapor imagery shows an impressive dry intrusion
spreading across much of AZ and NM ahead of a broad upper level
trough entering the Great Basin. Deep mixing in response to very
strong afternoon heating with large surface dewpoint depressions is
tapping stronger winds aloft with widespread surface wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph at 2pm. These unseasonably strong winds with very low
humidity will continue to generate dangerous fire weather conditions
for parts of the region thru sunset. A new fire start in extreme
northeast Otero County west of Ruidoso is producing a well-defined
smoke plume already. This will become impactful to air quality as we
progress thru tonight and Tuesday. Elsewhere, just enough low level
moisture with backing wind profiles across extreme far eastern NM
may allow for a couple storms to fire up after 4pm near the TX/NM
border. This activity will move quickly east away from the area but
some of the strongest cells may produce hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, the remainder of this evening into the overnight will
feature decreasing winds with slowly falling temps thru midnight.

By Tuesday, the upper level trough axis will still be west of the
area but with slightly higher H5 pressure heights over NM. Southwest
winds will trend lighter but still breezy across eastern NM and the
higher terrain. Temps will be very hot once again across eastern NM
with another Heat Advisory possible for Roswell. Very dry air will
also remain in place over the region with min humidity values below
10% in many areas. The dryline is expected to be farther east into
west TX so there are no precip chances even for far eastern NM.

A backdoor cold front will enter far northeast NM Tuesday evening
while low level return flow deepens across southeast NM. Low clouds
are expected to develop westward after midnight, especially across
northeast NM and along the TX/NM border. There is an abundance of
moisture, shear, instability, and lift along the boundary so a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday night over northeast NM if
the capping inversion is broken.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A significant change to the weather pattern arrives
Wednesday in the form of a potent backdoor cold front invading
northeastern NM and meeting up with abundant moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico advecting westward into eastern NM. Temperatures fall 10F
to 15F from Tuesday`s forecast across eastern NM as a result.
Upslope flow to the central mountain chain combined with the influx
of moisture will aid in the initiation of afternoon storms there
that track back east over the eastern plains late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm outflow will aid the westerly surge
of this cooler and wetter airmass through the gaps of the central
mountain chain Wednesday night, reaching the Continental Divide and
AZ border Thursday morning. Strong east canyon winds at Santa Fe and
Albuquerque look very likely, with sustained winds above 30 mph
gusting above 50 mph. These strong east canyon winds look to
continue well into the day Thursday for Albuquerque and Santa Fe, if
not through the entire day.

Thursday and Friday see the highest moisture content arrive into the
Rio Grande Valley and through western NM. Dewpoints rise into the
50s at Albuquerque and look to flirt with 60F by next weekend,
matching well with the modeled increase in PWATs to 1.00" to 1.25"
during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers are favored
each afternoon across much of the forecast area as a result, at
minimum. The main question in the forecast is the stability along
and east of the central mountain chain, due to the likelihood of a
persistent and stubborn low-level stratus cloud deck and cooler
boundary layer temperatures. The combination of near zero SBCAPE
across the eastern plains and abundant dry air above 550mb will
severely limit the potential for vertical development of any
convection across the eastern half of the state. Much of the
precipitation potential here will thus be in a light stratiform rain
event as a result. Higher temperatures further west starting in the
Rio Grande Valley and to AZ will steadily increase the potential for
more convectively driven thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday
afternoons. The overall increase of precipitation chances brings an
increased risk of burn scar flash flooding. However there is some
limitation here, especially for the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn
area, due to the limited instability.

The H5 high strengthens this weekend with the centroid favoring a
position over west-central to southwestern NM. Low-level moisture
will linger across the forecast area with temperatures trending
warm. This will favor a fairly standard summer time thunderstorm
pattern Saturday and Sunday with storms initiating over the high
terrain and then moving over surrounding lower elevations late day
and evening. The slowest storm motions will favor the Gila NF of
Catron County where the centroid of the H5 looks to be. More
easterly to southeasterly storm motions will be present elsewhere
over northern and southeastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Southwest winds will increase quickly thru 1pm with gusts of 25 to
35 kt common at many terminals until sunset. A couple SHRA/TS may
form near the TX/NM state line aft 4pm then move quickly east into
west TX. A storm or two may become strong or severe with hail and
damaging winds possible. Winds will then taper off overnight with
SKC all areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON...

Southwest winds will continue to strengthen thru late afternoon
across the region with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely in many areas
before sunset. Meanwhile, very unstable conditions with single digit
humidity in parts of central and western NM will keep Red Flag
conditions going thru mid evening. Winds will trend lighter by
midnight but humidity recovery will be poor in many areas. Single
digit humidity is expected again Tuesday but winds will be lighter
than today. Conditions will still be breezy enough for elevated to
locally critical fire weather over northeast NM. Confidence was not
high enough to support another Red Flag given lower ERC values and
higher soil moisture. However, if winds trend stronger with model
guidance tonight then a Red Flag may be needed. A moist backdoor
cold front then slides into eastern NM Tuesday night with much
higher moisture for Wednesday. This moisture will set the stage for
increasing chances of showers and storms through the end of the week
across central and eastern NM. Some of this activity may be locally
heavy with burn scar flash flooding possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  86  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  83  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  50  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  45  85  45  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  49  81  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  45  86  46  91 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  50  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  59  89  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  51  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  43  88  44  92 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  59  92  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  43  77  44  82 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  63  84  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  51  84  51  81 /   0   0   0  30
Cerro/Questa....................  50  79  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
Red River.......................  45  71  43  72 /   0   0   0  40
Angel Fire......................  38  76  37  74 /   0   0   0  40
Taos............................  48  84  48  85 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  49  83  48  77 /   0   0   0  50
Espanola........................  57  91  57  92 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  59  84  58  85 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  57  89  56  89 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  94  63  95 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  95  62  97 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  93  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  58  96  58  97 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  63  93  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  95  56  97 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  58  94  58  96 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  54  95  55  97 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  65  91  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  63  93  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  63  98  63 100 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  60  90  60  89 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  61  89  59  87 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  52  87 /   0   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  53  84  53  80 /   0   0   0  30
Mountainair.....................  59  88  58  88 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  54  89  55  90 /   0   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  92  63  94 /   0   0   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  86  57  83 /   0   0   0  40
Capulin.........................  58  86  55  71 /   0   0  10  50
Raton...........................  56  89  54  77 /   0   0   5  40
Springer........................  58  92  56  80 /   0   0   5  50
Las Vegas.......................  53  84  52  77 /   0   0   0  40
Clayton.........................  63  94  59  78 /   5   0  10  40
Roy.............................  64  89  61  79 /   0   0  10  50
Conchas.........................  68  97  65  87 /   0   0   5  40
Santa Rosa......................  66  94  64  86 /   0   0   0  40
Tucumcari.......................  68  97  66  87 /   5   0   5  30
Clovis..........................  65  94  64  85 /   5   5   5  20
Portales........................  67  97  66  86 /   5   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  68  98  68  89 /   0   0   0  20
Roswell.........................  70 105  69  94 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  61  97  61  87 /   0   0   0  40
Elk.............................  59  94  58  84 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-109-
121-123.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42