763
FXUS63 KABR 071754
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected through
tonight. Threat for severe weather is very low. 15-20% chance of
light rain returns Sunday with chances increasing Monday night into
Tuesday (20-35%).

- Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next
week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

We continue to see elevated convection and rain along and south of
highway 14 this morning, though the tail end is starting to clear
western Stanley/Jones counties. CAMS still show some storm
development along and south of I90 but this is almost exclusively
developing south of the CWA. Focus then shifts to the north where
we are already seeing the development of some Altocumulus with weak
returns. Very little instability associated with this northwest
flow wave, however shear is 50-60kts. Profiles don`t really hint
at much of an environment for thunderstorms, however both the
HRRR and high res NAM show some convective cell development. Added
additional POPs up in this area in line with the latest SPC
update.

Updated aviation discussion below...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Warm air advection off a weak Colorado low coupled with shortwaves
in the upper ridge will generate some showers and thunderstorms
mainly south of Hwy 212 this morning. By this evening, the upper
ridge begins to collapse, and more ample shortwave energy moves in
from the north in a digging trough. That will fill in scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the northern and eastern cwa.
Generally, amounts are expected to be light at less than a quarter
inch, and no severe storms are anticipated.

Sfc high pressure builds in for Saturday keeping the area dry
through the afternoon with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins with an upper level
trough crossing the region, bringing a 20-30 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Depending on
deterministic model used, the trough may produce robust rainfall, or
remain north of the CWA with dry conditions possible. The latest
rendition of the NBM suggests some pcpn, but a slightly lower
potential. A long wave trough may cross region from west to east
Monday night through Tuesday, with the NBM indicating 20 to 35
percent chance of pcpn.

Weak ridging to nearly zonal flow develops Wednesday through
Thursday with a period of mostly dry conditions with perhaps above
average temperatures. The probability of seeing 85 degrees on
Wednesday and Thursday is 30-80 percent over much of the CWA. The
above average temps may continue into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Low potential for thunderstorms
to affect the KMBG terminal late this afternoon, weakening as
they get towards the other terminals (and thus just a VCTS
mention tonight).


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Connelly