709
FXUS63 KABR 091726 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50 to 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some storms along and west
  of the Missouri River may become strong to severe Monday
  afternoon and evening.

- There is a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  into Wednesday night, mainly along and east of the James River
  Valley. Some storms may become strong to severe.

- Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next
  week, with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Not much needed for updates to the forecast through 00Z today.
Only thing to watch for will be the increasing mid/high cloud
cover across central SD this afternoon, and if any of the
shower/thundershower activity now moving into western SD out of MT
will eventually find its way into the far western CWA late
afternoon or early evening. Current forecast has PoPs entering the
picture out west tonight, but will monitor trends to see if any
mention of precip needs to be introduced late this afternoon or
early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface high pressure will strengthen today into tonight keeping the
region dry with seasonable temperatures. As the high shifts farther
south and east late tonight into Monday morning, shortwave energy
will ride the upper ridge into western SD, and southeast winds will
increase ahead of an approaching low. A few showers (<20% chance)
may make it as far east as north central SD on a weak llj before
drying up by 12z Monday. The sfc front and upper low will push
toward central SD between 21z and 0z and could bring strong to
severe storms with it, though chances increase Monday evening. There
is a marginal to slight risk (1 to 2 out of 5) of severe storms
along and west of the Missouri River with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An active weather pattern can be expected through the long term
portion of the forecast.

The period begins with an upper level trough and surface low
pressure system passing across the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Instability and shear are best along and west of the
Missouri RIver, with instability waning further east. Still appears
as though a few strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible
along the frontal boundary over the western CWA, with the severe
threat diminishing further east. The convection should be east of
the CWA by 15Z Tuesday, with dry conditions possible until
Wednesday.

On Wednesday, an area of low pressure embedded within nearly zonal
flow aloft may bring the next round of thunderstorms, mainly over
the eastern half of the CWA. With modest instability and deep layer
shear, strong to perhaps severe storms may be possible, depending on
timing. The latest deterministic GFS suggests the storm will
progress across the CWA during the morning hours, with others have
storms in the afternoon and evening hours.

By the end of the work week, an upper level trough over the Pac NW
will cause southwesterly flow over the northern plains. A couple low
pressure systems moving through the region will bring rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The deterministic ECMWF suggests a wet
Father`s Day weekend, which is supported by the CPC`s 6-10 day pcpn
outlook that favors above average pcpn.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TMT