069
FXUS63 KABR 052006
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds subside this evening before ramping back up again (gusts 35-
  45 mph) on Thursday.

- Slight chance (15-25%) of light moisture Friday evening through
  early Saturday, otherwise, the forecast reminds dry through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Several observations showing gusts from 45 to 55 mph across the CWA,
although a higher concentration along and west of the James River.
It`s been a bit tough for the southeast CWA near the Watertown
region to get advisory-level speeds, and may consider canceling the
Wind Advisory early in this area. Otherwise, will leave the headline
in place until its current expiration time of 01Z. After this time,
winds look to subside for the overnight hours as temperatures drop
into the 50s.

On Thursday, the pressure gradient remains rather tight across the
region and will once again be looking at windy conditions. Focus
this time is over the eastern CWA, where gusts could meet or exceed
45 mph. Will let mid shift take a closer look at this potential, and
just how far west to go with any possible headline decisions.
Surface high pressure then settles in for Thursday night, with light
winds and dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Overall a drier weather pattern expected through the long term as
Clusters agree on northwest flow continuing over the Northern Plains
with an elongated ridge over the western Conus and a trough over the
eastern CONUS for the start of the long term. Within this pattern, a
broad area of low pressure (2 splitting lows) are positioned over
southeastern Canada into the Northeastern US and the other low over
central Saskatchewan/Alberta at 12Z Friday. There is some
differences between the ensembles on how deep the low becomes at
this time with Cluster 2 (53% GEFS/16% ENS/15% GEPS) keeping it one
elongated closed low. High pressure will still be dominant over the
area through the day, keeping conditions dry. We will see pressure
falls through the afternoon as an area of low pressure will be over
the Rockies. Cluster 1, made up mostly of GEFS/GEPS, seems to be the
only ensemble indicating possible light moisture from this over
parts of the Coteau and southeastern CWA Friday evening-early
Saturday. Latest NBM has slight (15-25%) pops for this area during
this time.

For the weekend the +PNA pattern continues with the ridge pushing
just slightly east on Sunday with the trough and quite the broad
area of low pressure spinning over the Northeastern US extending
westward into parts of the Midwest. A high pressure system forming
over the central Plains will keep the area dry as it shifts
east/southeastward into Sunday. Early next week, Clusters agree on
the +PNA pattern continuing, with the overall system becoming more
broad with the ridge being the dominant feature over much of the
central and western CONUS by Tuesday. Well into the extended this
ridge will push east but lots of differences on timing and intensity
per Clusters. Another high sinks in from Canada on Monday with
possible slight chances (15-25%) of moisture Tuesday, but confidence
remains low on this.

Highs for Friday will rebound from the mid 70s to the lower 80s,
which is around to slightly above normal. Saturday will be a bit
cooler with temps ranging in the 70s. Sunday`s highs are a bit
tricky as the NBM 25-75th spread is a 7-12 degree difference. Right
now forecasted highs will be in the 60s and 70s. Quite a difference
by middle of next week as this ridge moves overhead with forecasted
highs in the 80s to even around 90 possible, but a 9-12 degree temps
spread continues per NBM.
.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period.
Gusty west-northwest surface winds will prevail this afternoon,
with diminishing speeds tonight, but will ramp back up once again
on Thursday. LLWS (low-level wind shear) may be a concern across
the region overnight, with higher confidence in KATY, so inserted
mention of this for their TAF. May need to address other sites for
the 00Z TAF issuance.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT