706
FXUS63 KABR 081730 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50 to 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some storms along and west
  of the Missouri River may become strong to severe Monday
  afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next
  week, with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Continue to watch sprinkles/light showers moving east-southeast
across western/central SD. Had earlier this morning expanded
isolated PoPs (20%) further north to align with radar trends. HRRR
suggests this activity diminishes/moves out of the region by
around 18Z, but will continue to monitor and add PoPs into the
afternoon if needed. Otherwise, expect highs to rise into the 70s
for most locations, with mostly sunny skies north and east, and
mostly cloudy skies over central/south central areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Light rain with embedded weak convection has developed again across
south central SD early this morning. There are also some remnant
showers across east central SD. All of this precipitation should be
pushed out this morning by sfc high pressure moving in from the
northwest. The remainder of today is expected to be dry and a little
cooler than average with highs in the 70s. Can`t completely rule out
isolated showers developing late tonight again south of I-90. A
shortwave will move along the Black Hills and then follow the upper
flow into central SD. Added in some 15 to 20 percent pops between 6z
and 12z Sunday. However, even stronger sfc high pressure builds in
on Sunday and should cut off any lingering showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday night with a
surface high pressure over the region with an upper level ridge
building into the region. The ridge is transient, with an upper
level trough and surface frontal boundary sliding across the region
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A few storms may become
strong to severe Monday evening, mainly west of the Missouri River
valley. As storms progress eastward Monday night, instability wanes,
but an increasing 35-45 knot LLJ should keep convection going across
the rest of the CWA. The trough and surface frontal boundary should
push east of the CWA between 12-15Z Tuesday with period of mostly
dry conditions until the end of the period. By the end of the work
week, a couple of surface low pressure systems may progress across
the region, bringing a period of showers and thunderstorms. The
weather pattern appears fairly active for the end of the work week
and into Father`s Day weekend. The 6-10 day pcpn outlook from CPC
does favor above average precipitation.

Temperatures early in the period will favor near to slight below
average before rebounding on Wednesday to above average. The rest of
the period should favor above average with highs in the upper 70s,
to the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TMT