Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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466 FXUS63 KABR 041720 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 30 to 60% chance of showers and sub-severe thunderstorms today, highest over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Most locations will receive less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. - Winds will increase out of the west-northwest during the day Wednesday, with gusts of 40 to near 50 mph. The strongest winds are expected over central SD and the northern portions of the Prairie Coteau of Marshall County. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The forecast remains on track this morning with the cold front already east of the James Valley and showers filling in behind it. No major changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 As of 3 AM CDT, showers and thunderstorms are working their way east into western MN. Temperatures around the region are in the mid 60s to low 70s with winds generally out of the south to southwest. Winds will turn to be west-northwesterly following the cold front. A cold front moves across the region today bringing some chances for showers/storms. Showers will start west river in the mid-morning and move east, exiting SD by early afternoon. Storms are expected to stay sub-severe. With the showers, chances of more than a tenth of an inch in 12 hours max out at around 60% along the ND/SD border and around 30% along and southeast of a line from Watertown to Pierre. Chances for more than a quarter of an inch max out around 30% along the ND/SD border and decrease to the south. Amounts could be more in thunderstorms. Some light showers are possible mainly south of Hwy 12 Wednesday morning. Today, with the cold front some stronger winds are expected mainly west river with gusts of 30+ mph possible. Wednesday will have some good mixing during the afternoon with CAA moving into the region. This will result in some wind gusts in excess of 45 mph in north central SD, other areas could see gusts over 40+ mph. RH values Wednesday afternoon will drop below 30% for areas west of the James River. However, recent rain and fuel greenup will keep fires from spreading very far. Temperatures today and Wednesday will be cooler due to clouds, the cold front, and CAA. Highs will reach into the low to mid 70s today, slightly higher Wednesday, in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 To start out the long term period at 00Z Thursday we`ll have the surface high over northern Manitoba/Ontario and an elongated ridge of high pressure set up from off the coast of WA/British Columbia through MT and far southwestern SD. At 500mb we have the low to our north across central Canada and a dominant ridge of high pressure set up from the 4-corners region through much the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada. A period of stronger winds will remain Wednesday night into Thursday, particularly with the stronger mixing during the afternoon hours. Model data indicates mixing up to 750-700mb Thursday afternoon, highest over central SD with the tighter pressure gradient between the low to our northeast and ridge to our southwest. Relative humidity values Thursday afternoon drop 20-25% west of the Missouri River, and 25-30% east. Fortunately, the recent rainfall and greenup of fuels will help limit some of the fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon given the winds gusting out of the northwest 25-35kts in the afternoon. The ridge of high pressure will slowly edge east across the forecast area Thursday night through at least Friday, keeping our dry weather conditons in place and result in diminishing winds. There is still some uncertainty with the strength and how far east the western 500mb ridge will be able to make it as the Canadian low dives into the northeastern U.S. for early next week. Still, 20-40% chances for mainly showers and limited thunderstorms looks reasonable for Monday into Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. West to northwest winds will gust 25 to 35 kts through this afternoon before diminishing overnight. Winds will increase again on Wednesday out of the west-northwest. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Wise