Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
526 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

It`s all down hill from here. Today will be the warmest day for
the rest of the year, with highs in the 40s and 50s. On warmer
southwest to west flow, 850mb temps will rise to 3C to 6C. The
20F above normal temperatures will be short lived as a cold front
draped across ND late this morning (extending from the sfc low
over northeastern Manitoba) nears. Ahead of the front, gusty
southwest winds of 20-30kts are expected off the Sisseton Hills
today.

Expect the cold front to sink across across our northern counties by
03Z, and exit to our south shortly after 06Z Tuesday. While a the
00Z and 06Z run of the GFS do indicate some light snow possible over
the northwestern counties 00-06Z Tuesday, the main change will be
increased cloud cover, a northwesterly turn to the winds, and cooler
air. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 20s again tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

Upper level northwest flow will become more zonal by midweek ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. This wave will move through late
Wednesday night into the day Thursday. Another wave then moves in
and broadens out to encompass the majority of the country. At the
surface, high pressure will keep conditions dry Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Attention then turns to an approaching low pressure system
that continues to look like the next potential significant weather
maker. The low looks to drop from Montana across eastern Wyoming and
across the Central Plains, bringing the best chance for snow to the
area late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Models continue
to differ some on the exact timing of the precipitation, but do seem
to agree that the southern CWA will be the focus for somewhat higher
amounts during the day Thursday. Windy conditions are possible on
Wednesday ahead of the system, then again late Wednesday night and
Thursday in conjunction with the falling snow on the back side of
the system. Current indications are for less than an inch across the
north, to 3-4 inches across the south, but for the more significant
issue being the winds occurring with the falling snow. Visibilities
will likely be reduced at times across the CWA. The remainder of the
period will be mostly dry, with much colder air filtering into the
region under high pressure and in association with the strong upper
trough.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see a continuation of mild temperatures,
with highs in the 30s and 40s. The cooler air then moves in, with
highs mainly in the teens Thursday through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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