Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 020528 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

See the updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Made a few minor changes to pops this evening. Shifted pops
further south across Jones and Lyman counties. Removed pops from
north central South Dakota, except for a very small sliver on the
ND/SD line due to some showers that are barely dipping south into
McPherson county. Left temperatures alone for now, but if clouds
dissipate after sunset will likely lower overnight lows 5 degrees
across the eastern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Forecast challenges are centered mainly on how far into dry
airmass over this CWA showers and isolated thunderstorms across
southwestern South Dakota and southern North Dakota can make it
before fizzling out, along with forecast min and max temperatures
tonight and Saturday.

Currently, underneath increasing cloud cover across the forecast
area, temperatures have warmed into the 70s. Where it`s been
raining, temperatures are a bit cooler in the mid to upper 60s. A
batch of light to moderate rain showers is moving east-southeast
along interstate 90 over south central South Dakota. They haven`t
been able to move as far north and east as Pierre due to all the dry
air in place. Similarly, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving into central and south central North Dakota are
expected to run into the same problem as they attempt to work their
way down across northeast South Dakota over the next several hours.

Tonight and Saturday, as the surface high pressure system in place
over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota gradually moves away from
this region, a return flow pressure gradient will develop with
southeasterly breezes being the result. Low temperatures tonight
will be a touch warmer than the upper 30s to mid 40s the CWA felt
last night, as return flow southeasterly winds and partial cloud
cover help hold temperatures up, generally in the upper 40s to mid
50s throughout the region. The departing surface high pressure
system will have less of an influence on high temperatures on
Saturday, with airmass moderation and plentiful sunshine expected to
help push the mercury up into the low 80s across much of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

The only real chance for precipitation early on in the period
arrives on Monday when the frontal boundary advances into central
SD. Temperatures will be heating up by then as well, with highs in
the 90s for most locations along and west of the James River.
Looking into next week, things try to get a bit more active with on
and off chances for showers and thunderstorms. Superblend grids seem
to be overloaded with pops, but with several mid level impulses
moving through and a few waves of surface low pressure, it`s hard to
pinpoint times of dryness and better precip chances due to model
timing and uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. South to southeast
winds of 10 to 15 kts Saturday afternoon will become light and
variable Saturday evening.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Serr



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