434
FXUS64 KAMA 251747
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Anticipate quite a dry and breezy start to the weekend across the
vast majority of the Panhandles this afternoon. As an upper trough
approaches from the west, a deepening sfc low off the Rockies will
generate breezy southwest winds of 20-30 mph, gusting around/over
40 mph at times. With clear skies overhead, high temperatures will
solidly reach the 90s for most of the area. This combination of
hot, dry, and breezy conditions will create critical fire weather
concerns across the western to central combined Panhandles where
fuels are still somewhat receptive.

The deepening sfc low to the north will also present the
opportunity to hold the dryline across our far eastern stack of
counties this afternoon-evening, where there`s a 10-15% chance for
a storm or two to initiate before quickly entering western OK.
Although most global models show the dryline settling over far
western Oklahoma, more CAMs are now depicting the dryline hanging
slightly further west, encroaching into our CWA. If this were to
occur, 50s dew pts, 50 kts bulk shear, and moderate instability
ahead of this forcing would certainly support a severe storm or
two, assuming the cap can break. Lack of quality and depth of
moisture into the eastern Panhandles could be a limiting factor
today even if the dryline hangs west, but all modes of severe
weather would still be in play, although large hail would be the
primary hazard. Again, this further west outcome has a low chance
of panning out, but observational trends will need to be
monitored closely through the day.

A weak front will drag over the area Sunday behind the exiting
disturbance, providing only a few degrees of relief with slightly
breezy northwest winds and sunny skies. Highs souldn`t have much
trouble reaching the 80s to low 90s, especially for the southern
Texas Panhandle. Overnight lows into Monday morning will be a
little cooler in spots as well, bottoming out in the upper 40s in
the northwest Panhandles.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

It looks like rain chances will be going up for the Panhandles
Tuesday through Friday.  Several upper level short wave troughs will
move through the flow next week.  A general southeast surface wind
will prevail next week.  Low level moisture will tend to stay in
place with the southeast winds.  This moisture will combine with the
upper air disturbances to bring several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to the region.  The devil will be in the details on
where the best chance of rain will be each day.  The showers and
storms may lay down an outflow boundary which could be a focus for
showers and thunderstorms the next day.  Or an outflow boundary
could move all the way through the Panhandles in which case the next
day may not have as much convection.  There could be a day where we
are stuck under low clouds much of the day and we can not reach our
convective temperature therefore, cutting down on the coverage of
rain perhaps.  The best case scenario if we want to see rain is if
showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and they move
east of our area overnight and skies clear and the atmosphere
recovers for another round of showers and thunderstorms the next
day.  Also, the rain coverage may depend on the timing of the upper
level waves.  Right now, it looks like high temperatures will
generally be in the 80`s for next week.  But cloud cover and rain
could change those temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected at all terminals
this afternoon and evening with KDHT expected to see some of the
strongest gusts today. These winds are partly due to a strong
upper-level jet that is currently bleeding down to surface.
Blowing dust may also become a problem at the terminals given the
dry and windy conditions. However, only KDHT has high enough
confidence for blowing dust to be mention at this time. Otherwise,
VFR conditions should hold for rest of today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  89  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  57  87  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              53  82  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  61  91  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              56  90  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  89  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               62  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 52  86  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  55  85  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                58  91  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   61  88  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  93  58  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-
     007-011-012-016-017-317.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...11