116
FXUS64 KAMA 120500
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1200 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A weather system continues to impact the southern plains through
the rest of the weekend. This system is still over the desert SW
today but it is progressing ever eastward increasing its influence
over the panhandles. Currently the placement of this system has
set up a SE wind field over the region which is pumping ample
moisture to the panhandles. This moisture is fueling the rain
showers and thunderstorms that the panhandles is currently
experiencing. As additional moisture arrives through the rest of
today and Sunday the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms will
increase. In addition the higher amounts of moisture will allow
for higher rainfall amounts to occur from any given rain shower or
thunderstorm. Sunday will see the system depart the desert SW and
pass over the southern plains. The passage of this system will
spin up a surface low during the morning hours in the western
panhandles and eastern NM/CO. This feature along with the weather
system itself will provide additional instability and shear.
These in turn will help to strengthen and organize the expected
thunderstorms. This increased activity will be most prominent in
western panhandles for Sunday morning. This activity should then
shift to the eastern panhandles during the later morning hours
before departing eastward prior to noon. This early activity may
provide some inhibition that would inhibit thunderstorm
development during the afternoon to evening hours. However if
enough instability is able to regenerate then further round of
thunderstorms can be expected. It is this second round of
thunderstorms which would have the best environmental conditions
to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds
being the main threat. Current thinking is that the central to NE
portions of the panhandles will be the area of concern for these
thunderstorms as these areas are less likely to have been impacted
by the morning convection and be able to regenerate CAPE. As the
surface low pushes eastward it will shift the wind direction
initially to the west then to the NW. This will help to move
moisture out of the panhandles with the rain showers and
thunderstorms ending slowly in a west to east fashion starting
Sunday afternoon. This system will be capable of producing
accumulations of half an inch to even over one and a half inches
for spots that see multiple round of rain showers or
thunderstorms. However flooding chances are expected to be low
around 5 percent as it is unlikely that any one spot will see
continued heavy rainfall over a short duration. It would be more
likely for spots that see the high end rainfall to see a rain
shower here and there that will then add up to the higher amounts.
The passage of this weather system coupled with the ample cloud
cover, rain showers, and thunderstorms will lead to cooler
temperatures through the weekend.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

As the upper low begins to exit on Monday, areas of increased lift
on the backside of the system may help to continue generating some
showers and embedded storms across the northeast Panhandles
through the afternoon hours. Tuesday will be warmer and dry, with
highs in the 80s forecast area wide. Although most guidance is
dry Tuesday, there are hints that moisture return to the area may
be ahead of schedule, with a stronger push of 700mb theta-e
advection from the west. If a subtle shortwave can manage to round
the crest of the upper level ridge by Tue afternoon-evening, we
can`t entirely rule out a stray storm or two somewhere over the
Panhandles. But given the unfavorable large scale pattern, this
would only support a <20% chance of precipitation.

Wednesday continues to be our day of interest, when models agree
an approaching trough will help to break down and displace the
500mb ridge. If moisture advection to the area is already in place,
instability should be able to build by Wed afternoon as
temperatures climb back into the 80s. Assuming deep-layer shear
ahead of the trough is sufficient, we could see some strong to
severe thunderstorms develop in the area ahead of an approaching
cold front. Additional showers and storms could develop overnight
into Thursday along and behind the cold front as it moves through,
until the better dynamics exit and dry air returns. After a brief
cool down on Thursday, above average daytime temperatures return
heading into the weekend. There is still plenty of uncertainty
amongst model guidance, but at this time the signal appears to be
suggesting an active pattern is possible next week.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting KDHT, and KGUY
may see some thunderstorms work in as well in the coming hours.
KAMA will see showers and possible thunderstorms later in the
night. Each site will see periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms
through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are present at
all sites but MVFR to IFR ceilings will work in later. Visibility
restrictions are present at KDHT, and other visibility
restrictions will be possible at the other sites during persistent
rainfall.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  51  77  50 /  50  70  60  20
Beaver OK                  79  51  75  50 /  30  90  90  60
Boise City OK              70  49  72  47 /  80  90  70  40
Borger TX                  73  54  80  51 /  60  80  60  40
Boys Ranch TX              67  53  80  48 /  70  80  40  20
Canyon TX                  65  52  77  47 /  60  70  50  10
Clarendon TX               66  53  72  52 /  50  70  70  30
Dalhart TX                 69  51  75  44 /  70  90  50  30
Guymon OK                  77  53  75  48 /  60  90  80  50
Hereford TX                63  53  80  47 /  70  70  50  10
Lipscomb TX                77  50  73  52 /  30  90  80  70
Pampa TX                   72  52  74  52 /  40  80  70  40
Shamrock TX                73  52  71  52 /  30  70  80  50
Wellington TX              68  53  72  54 /  40  60  90  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...52