Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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393 FXUS64 KBMX 221933 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 233 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 107 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024 A couple rounds of thunderstorms will pass within close proximity to the northwestern portions of Central Alabama over the next 24 hours as a northeast to southwest oriented cold front slowly drifts towards the Mid-South region. The mid-level ridge axis has shifted east of the area allowing low-level flow to take on more of a south to southwesterly heading. Deeper moisture still resides to our west, so our dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon and again tomorrow while lower 70s dewpoints are forecast over northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley. The first wave of thunderstorms will likely follow the more favorable instability gradient as it moves along the frontal zone, staying north of the forecast area and moving from Mississippi into northern Alabama this afternoon. A second wave will have improved upper-level support overnight as a shortwave begins to pass across the area. Some weakening thunderstorms will move in across the northwest around midnight, but QPF amounts look minimal. Same story on Thursday as the front remains well to our north. Most of the activity will remain north of Central Alabama during the day, and any isolated shower or storm is not expected to be strong as a result of limited forcing and instability. Expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024 North Alabama will be on the southern periphery of an active westerly flow pattern through the weekend, and kept rain chances mostly in the 30-50 percent range. A significant short wave trough will track from the Midwest States and into the Great Lakes region Sunday and Monday. A severe weather outbreak is likely across Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky Sunday and into Sunday night, but unclear how far southward severe storms will develop, so not enough confidence to mention severe at this time for Central Alabama. Clearing and cooler conditions on Tuesday. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024 A scattering of low-level cu have developed again this afternoon, but another period of VFR conditions is expected. High pressure extends along the East Coast into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, so surface winds are out of the south around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will go calm tonight, and high-level cloud cover will increase across the area. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will keep most of the rain confined to the far northern portions of Alabama through Friday. 20 foot winds will be from the south at less than 5 mph at night and 4-7 mph during the day. Max RH levels tonight will be above 90 percent. Min RH Thursday 40-45 percent and 45-55 percent on Friday. Better chances for rain expected over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 88 65 86 / 10 20 10 50 Anniston 67 88 67 87 / 10 10 10 40 Birmingham 70 89 69 88 / 10 10 10 40 Tuscaloosa 69 89 69 90 / 10 20 10 30 Calera 69 88 68 88 / 10 10 0 30 Auburn 68 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 68 89 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 66 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....58/rose AVIATION...86