Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 302002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  72  53  76  57 /   0  50  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  50  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  50  40  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  50  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  40  40  30
TROY        54  78  59  80  59 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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