Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
243 FXUS64 KBMX 131602 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1102 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 High pressure will remain over the area with diurnal convection today and tomorrow. Instabilities will be high, with decent lapse rates, and DCAPE. Moisture will be decent, and any storm could be capable of being strong and producing strong winds, especially with any collapse. With the strength and position of the high over the western part of the state, storms will stay mostly isolated with a low chance for scattered convection to develop each afternoon. Any training cell could cause water issues in urban areas. Temperatures will warm each day, with triple digits across parts of the area today and most of the area tomorrow afternoon. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Tuesday, the high pressure begins to break down, with diurnal convection again possible. Winds will prevail out of the north through the afternoon, limiting moisture advection and keeping any activity more isolated coverage. By Wednesday, a low develops across the eastern FL area and drifts westward into the eastern Gulf. This will transition the low and mid level flow to the east, and begin to return moisture to the state. Models are in decent agreement for scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms returning to the state Wednesday afternoon through Friday, though models are also showing differences in coverage and timing of each area of rain. Right now will show the entire area with increases rain chances and details will be determined once that low gets closer. Tuesday and Wednesday, heat indices will be in the triple digits for much of the area, values as high as 105 in a few areas of the state. Once the rain starts to move into the state, cloud cover will keep the temperatures a couple of degrees cooler, though still hot in the mid to upper 90s. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Isolated convection is possible this afternoon, with the greatest chances around KTCL, where VCSH was included. Left mention of convection out of each of the other TAFs for now due to uncertainty in coverage and timing. Will amend if needed. Overnight, KTCL could see fog development with amount of moisture in the low levels, but a lot will depend on activity this evening and if any rain falls close to the site. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period outside of any shower and/or thunderstorm at each TAF site, with isolated activity expected again on Monday afternoon. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 70 94 71 / 40 10 20 10 Anniston 91 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Birmingham 92 73 94 74 / 50 10 30 10 Tuscaloosa 93 74 94 75 / 40 10 30 0 Calera 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 20 0 Auburn 92 73 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 Montgomery 94 74 96 75 / 30 10 20 10 Troy 93 72 95 74 / 30 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24