Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 042017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE
CONVECTIVE LINE COMING OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...AND A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A MCV OVR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO
NIGHTS...ANY BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING...AND THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS ORGANIZED OR AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
RATHER HIGH. BY MONDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF FINALLY MOVES EAST OF
ALABAMA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. A UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE GFS IS NOW COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK. NEXT
WEEKS PATTERN WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS PUSH TO A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY JUST SKIRT
KTCL AND KBHM TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY IMPACT KEET...KASN...AND
KANB BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND 00Z AS THE
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WANING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD
TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF
AXIS.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  80  68  86  70 /  80  70  40  40  30
ANNISTON    69  81  68  86  69 /  80  80  40  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  82  69  87  71 /  80  70  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  83  70  89  72 /  80  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  82  69  86  71 /  80  70  40  40  30
AUBURN      70  80  69  85  71 /  70  80  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  70  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  40  40  30
TROY        72  84  70  88  71 /  60  80  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$


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