Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260356
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1056 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Been trying to keep up with changing temperatures as the rain
areas develop and die off. As of 830 pm, we are left with one
rather substantial thunderstorm in the northern part of Cherokee
County, some lighter showers southwest of there, but little
remaining elsewhere. Will update again to hold onto the rain
chances in the northeast part of the area for another hour or two,
but I think we can put the rain chances to bed elsewhere.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Generally, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Otherwise,
we are left with a few cumulus and the mid and upper level blow
off from the storms overnight. Once again, the model guidance
suggest fog development overnight. There could potentially be some
in the rain areas, but expect temperatures to drop slowly
overnight due to the higher clouds. therefore, confidence in
anything developing remains low and will not mention.

Sunday looks like more scattered convection across the entire
area. Expect that the terminals will be affect at some point and
will add VCTS for all locations somewhere between 19-01z. Any
storms that develop Sunday afternoon have the potential for
strong gusty winds and localized torrential rain.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Typical summer weather is expected for the next several
days, although hotter than normal conditions are expected
over the weekend. No weather-related fire weather concerns
are expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Saturday afternoon and tonight.

Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue across
Central Alabama through the remainder of this afternoon and into
the evening hours, before steadily waning in coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday.

Highs in the mid/upper 90Fs are projected for Sunday, with dew
points lowering a bit as boundary-layer heating/mixing evolves.
Heat index indices should peak in the low 100Fs -- just below
heat advisory criteria of 105F. If a heat advisory does become
necessary, it is most probable across the southern counties.
Budding showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day,
within an environment supportive of localized microbursts per
forecast soundings -- deep and moderate-to-strongly unstable CAPE
values, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values. T/Td
spreads in the sub-cloud layer also support this risk. A mention
of isolated strong-to-severe storms will be maintained in the
hazardous weather outlook. Convective activity will persist into
the evening hours before again waning in coverage the deeper we
get into the nighttime hours.

For Monday through Wednesday, an upper-level ridge axis will shift
toward the west as an upper trough moves into the Great Lakes,
mid-Atlantic region. A few impulses will translate through the
upper trough and help push a surface front into Alabama. While
chances for isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will
exist each day, there should be a steady progression of a `best
chance` corridor from north to south. A hot and muggy air mass
will remain in place initially, with lower-humidity air expected
to arrive behind the frontal passage, mainly across the northern
portions of the coverage area at this time.

89/GSatterwhite

Long term...
Thursday through Saturday.

Remnant boundary will still be across the southern part of the state
on Thursday and isolated to scattered convection will be possible,
in the south. Slightly deeper moisture return across the entire area
on Friday and even better rain chances as we get into Saturday.
Temperatures mid/late week will be closer to normal for late
June/early July.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  94  73  90  73 /  30  30  30  50  40
Anniston    73  94  73  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  40
Birmingham  75  95  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  75  97  74  96  74 /  10  20  30  40  30
Calera      74  95  75  93  73 /  10  30  30  40  40
Auburn      74  94  74  93  73 /  10  30  30  40  30
Montgomery  75  96  75  96  75 /  10  30  30  30  30
Troy        73  95  74  94  74 /  10  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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