Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241149
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
549 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Overall, things are much calmer across Central Alabama over the
next week and into the weekend. A cold front will move through
during the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, with the
highest pops expected late afternoon through Midnight. At this
time we are only looking at rain as instability just is not there
for any thunderstorms. Any rain after Midnight will be south of
I-85.

Cooler conditions return to the area on Thursday, with even some
below freezing overnight lows from Friday morning through Tuesday
morning. Look for highs to be in the 40s to 50s each day, with
generally sunny to partly cloudy skies through Saturday as we will
be in a zonal flow across the southern states.

On Sunday night/Monday morning there will be a shortwave that will
try to dig down toward the area and bring some moisture with it.
Both the GFS and Euro show some precip associated with the
shortwave trying to get into Central Alabama. The GFS is much more
aggressive than the Euro, but the overall timing is the same.
Right now it appears that all the precipitation is ahead of the
colder temperatures and if it falls over the northeast it would be
all liquid. Any precip that does fall will be light. At this time
though, the differences in the placement of the precipitation and
the fact that the airmass will be extremely dry, will leave out of
the forecast and continue to monitor trends over the next few
runs.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

A fairly uniform MVFR deck is remains currently sliding across
the northeastern portions. They have been tempting BHM but just
not making it in. One more push to the south is expected so will
leave in tempo at BHM with predominant at ANB and ASN. MVFR fog
will be possible at TCL. After 14 to 15Z, skies will clear. Winds
remain light through the period with the only change will be the
winds shifting to more of a southerly direction by 23 to 01Z ahead
of the next front. Rain holds off until the next TAF cycle.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather until the next front on Wednesday. Scattered to
numerous rain showers will be possible along with cooler
temperatures. No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  41  66  41  49 /   0  10  40  50  10
Anniston    61  43  69  43  52 /   0  10  20  50  10
Birmingham  62  47  69  41  51 /   0  10  50  40   0
Tuscaloosa  63  46  70  40  53 /   0  10  50  40   0
Calera      62  45  70  42  53 /   0  10  40  50   0
Auburn      62  45  70  47  54 /   0   0  10  50  10
Montgomery  64  45  75  47  58 /   0   0  10  50  10
Troy        64  44  75  47  57 /   0   0  10  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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