Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 291837
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
137 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016
For 18Z Aviation.
Today and Tonight.
Currently mostly clear skies over Central Alabama, as an upper
level ridge is centered over Indiana and Kentucky, keeping a
fairly calm weather pattern over the region. Today`s forecast
projects that a small vorticity pocket, supported by slight jet
divergence, will carve a weakness in the ridge starting in Georgia
and then drop into the eastern portion of Central Alabama this
afternoon. This combined with the easterly fetch from the
Atlantic, will produce a few isolated showers primarily over the
southeast where the better lapse rates are also located. There is
a chance of a stray storm or two as model soundings project CAPE
values reaching at most 1600 J/kg. Today`s highs will be in the
90s and tonight`s lows are expected to drop to the 70s. Winds
this morning will begin to pick up as the pressure gradient begins
to tighten due to tropical depression 09 trying to push westward.
After sunset, convection as a whole will greatly diminish as lapse
rates and moisture begin to drop off. Winds will follow suit.
As we work into Wednesday, eyes will still be focused along the
souther portion of the Gulf of Mexico as we will continue to monitor
the system and the eventual path. Models are beginning to come in
line with each and confidence is increasing that there will be only
minimal impacts to Central Alabama at best given the current
forecast and expected track of the system. By Wednesday
evening/Thursday morning, the system should begin to work into the
Big Bend of Florida. This will keep Central Alabama on the drier
side of the system through the end of the week. Can not rule out an
isolated shower/storm each afternoon but coverage will be minimal.
On Friday, an easterly flow may bring a wave of energy into the area
and could increase the rain chances for Saturday across the southern
portions of the area. A small chance exist on Sunday as well but
overall coverage will be limited to south of US 80. So will not
mention at this time given the lack of coverage and low confidence.
Otherwise, looks like a fairly normal end of August/start of
18Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Isolated to scattered convection is expected once again
this afternoon and evening, with best coverage across the east and
southeastern counties of Central Alabama. Have added in VCSH to
the TAF for ANB, ASN, MGM, and TOI to take this into account.
Surface winds will prevail from the east today, around 10 knots
with some gusts between 15 and 20 knots possible this afternoon.
Convection will diminish this evening with VFR conditions
continuing through the overnight hours tonight.
Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will
continue thru midweek, with only isolated afternoon storms each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 70 91 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
Anniston 69 91 73 92 72 / 20 20 10 20 20
Birmingham 74 93 74 94 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 74 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
Calera 73 92 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Auburn 72 90 73 92 73 / 30 20 20 20 20
Montgomery 75 94 75 95 74 / 30 20 10 20 20
Troy 72 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 20 20 20