Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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088 FXUS64 KBMX 151745 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1245 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2024 Low pressure will continue to the northeast through the afternoon with flow around the low bringing showers and a chance for brief thunderstorms to the northeastern corner of the area. Instabilities are enough with PW values lingering close to the 75th percentile for scattered development this afternoon. Winds will be gusting today as the high pressure and weak pressure gradient continue to move east, but winds should weaken after sunset. Dry air will filter into the area in the evening, with activity expected to decrease as the sun sets. Skies should clear through the night, with patchy fog possible in a few locations. Winds should be weakening through the night, so how quickly those winds weaken may determine where and how much fog develops. Thursday, high pressure moves across the southeast US with dry weather and mid level flow shifting from the northeast in the morning to the southwest by the evening. High temperatures today will be near normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s due to that northwest flow, and with mostly clear skies on Thursday, highs will be a couple of degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2024 A zone of west-southwesterly flow aloft is progged to stretch from the Texas Gulf Coast through the Southern Appalachians by Friday morning. This is associated with a positively-tilted upper-level trough that extends into the Great Lakes with an embedded disturbance/low nearing the ArkLaTex. While less clear in the low- levels, latest guidance has trended farther north with a warm sector, many of which depict an accompanying low-level jet overspreading the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday morning, gradually shifting eastward during the afternoon. This would place Central Alabama in a favorable parameter space for strong to severe thunderstorms considering low-level and deep- layer shear with modest mid-level lapse rates. Various forecast soundings now suggest MLCAPE <2,500 J/kg west of I-65. Hodographs suggest supercellular storm modes are also possible. However, there`s still much uncertainty about how things near the surface evolve. There`s indication that morning convection could disrupt the northward expansion of the warm sector, or at least delay its recovery past peak heating, especially if convection lingers across the I-10 corridor. There`s also uncertainty regarding placement of surface boundaries and their respective orientations. It`s for this reason that it`s also hard to clearly define placement of flooding potential, though highest PWs and soil moisture remain across the southern half of the area (thus higher QPF there for now). All things considered, and while I hate to say it, there is growing concern for all severe weather hazards on Friday, with flooding potential to boot. In some capacity, lingering convection is forecast across southeast Central Alabama into Saturday morning, though threats will have diminished by then. The trough is progged to accelerate to the east during this time along with the low-level jet. PoPs decrease quickly west-to-east as a result. Deep-layer ridging is depicted in medium- range & ensembles thereafter, which supports a period of dry, warm weather that appears to extend into early next week. Highs in the 90s could be possible by then. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2024 Scattered showers are moving across the northeastern part of the area, with mainly KANB and KASN affected. Due to low confidence on exact timing and coverage, have included VCSH at these two sites for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with clearing skies through the night tonight. High pressure will move through the area tomorrow with VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... We`re now transitioning to a northwesterly 20 ft wind today, generally 5-10 mph, behind a departing system. Only a few rain showers are expected this afternoon. Drier, warmer conditions return to the area tomorrow with light northwesterly 20 ft winds. Our next weather system moves into the area on Friday. This will feature widespread rains and thunderstorms that will persist into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 56 87 62 81 / 0 0 20 70 Anniston 58 86 64 81 / 0 0 20 70 Birmingham 60 87 66 82 / 0 0 30 80 Tuscaloosa 60 88 67 83 / 0 0 40 80 Calera 60 87 67 81 / 0 0 30 80 Auburn 62 85 67 81 / 0 0 20 60 Montgomery 61 87 67 83 / 0 0 30 70 Troy 61 88 66 83 / 0 0 20 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...24