Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
515 FXUS64 KBMX 132326 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 626 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Outflow driven storms and convective temperatures have resulted in descent coverage this afternoon. Models really had a hard time processing what the outflows would develop as it wrapped around the edge of the high pressure in the region. Will hold onto PoPs in the west through Midnight, with the best chances through 10 pm. The high should build a touch to the south on Monday, with less in convection. Look for the north and the west to see the best chances at scattered showers and storms while the southeast should remain isolated. How long will the showers and storms linger into Monday night will really depend on the over coverage Monday afternoon. Temperatures will warm again on Monday, with triple digit heat index values across most of the area tomorrow afternoon. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1037 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Tuesday, the high pressure begins to break down, with diurnal convection again possible. Winds will prevail out of the north through the afternoon, limiting moisture advection and keeping any activity more isolated coverage. By Wednesday, a low develops across the eastern FL area and drifts westward into the eastern Gulf. This will transition the low and mid level flow to the east, and begin to return moisture to the state. Models are in decent agreement for scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms returning to the state Wednesday afternoon through Friday, though models are also showing differences in coverage and timing of each area of rain. Right now will show the entire area with increases rain chances and details will be determined once that low gets closer. Tuesday and Wednesday, heat indices will be in the triple digits for much of the area, values as high as 105 in a few areas of the state. Once the rain starts to move into the state, cloud cover will keep the temperatures a couple of degrees cooler, though still hot in the mid to upper 90s. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025 Outflow driven storms and convective temperatures have resulted in descent coverage this afternoon. Much of the convection is now north, east and south of the main TAF sites, but will need to keep an eye on TCL as showers and storms move toward the area. Much like last night will also need to see how long the rain can continue into the nighttime hours. Right now will add in tempo wording into TCL and just keep VCSH at the rest of the sites through 2 to 3z. After 6z, things should improve with a low chance of patchy fog developing. Best chances here appear to be TCL, EET and ASN just before sunrise, so added in tempo for fog as well. Afternoon convection again on Monday with the best chances at BHM and TCL at this time from 21 to 00z. Activity may linger into Monday night as well and the prob30 times may need to be adjusted. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 93 72 96 / 10 20 0 30 Anniston 71 93 72 93 / 10 20 0 30 Birmingham 73 93 74 95 / 10 30 0 20 Tuscaloosa 73 94 75 96 / 20 30 0 20 Calera 73 93 75 94 / 10 20 0 20 Auburn 73 94 75 94 / 20 20 10 40 Montgomery 73 95 75 96 / 20 20 10 30 Troy 72 94 74 96 / 30 20 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...16