Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 300753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST AND
IS SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NUMEROUS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NE THRU
THE DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE RAIN/CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES.

WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFTING MECHANISMS...MODELS HINTING AT SOME
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ENTERING CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE WEST...AND
THE HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO STAY WELL TO OUR SW EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
TRENDED A BIT LOWER WITH POPS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

IT STILL DOESN`T APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS...IF ANY...FROM WHAT WAS ONCE ERIKA. MODELS TAKE THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY ERIKA`S REMNANTS NORTH
AND THEN STALL IT OUT NEAR THE FL/GA LINE BY WED/THU. RAIN CHANCES
DO INCREASE A BIT BY THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES
NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE
12Z PERIOD SO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. DID HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE
INITIAL TIMING AS THIS SECOND AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT ALL SITES
BEFORE 8 TO 10Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE LATE
MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-65. TOOK TS MENTION OUT AFTER 03Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TO START THE WORK
WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  67  86  68  88 /  60  30  20  10  20
ANNISTON    82  67  87  68  89 /  60  30  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  68  88  69  90 /  50  20  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  87  69  91  70  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      84  69  88  70  90 /  40  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      85  69  87  70  88 /  40  20  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  90  70  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
TROY        89  70  91  70  91 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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