Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 292014
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE LARGE MCS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REACHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV BUT IS STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TRENDS AND STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH. TOMORROW A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD BESIDES A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW AND ANY
POSSIBLE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IS LOW...BUT EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. THE WRF-ARW
INDICATES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY CORFIDI VECTORS AND INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WARM CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE. BULK SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SO A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

32/DAVIS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT ROTATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND TIMING
OF THE IMPULSES ARE DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT TOO MUCH OUT OF PHASE...WITH EACH MODEL
SHOWING A MCS APPROACHING WEST ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WERE ASSIGNED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONTEMPLATED LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT KEPT POPS BELOW 60
PERCENT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH EACH IMPULSE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM ANYTIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT DO NOT
SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR STAYS BELOW 30
KNOTS UNTIL TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT
SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY ONE PERIOD. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. THE
MODELS DO BRING IN SOME HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA. THE MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE RAIN PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST MS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR TCL/BHM/EET AND VCTS AT ANB/ASN WITH SOME QUESTION
REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. VIS REDUCTION
WILL BE LIKELY BUT CIG HEIGHTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNCERTAIN.
ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MGM/TOI WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AND HAVE ADDED AN MVFR
MENTION ONLY AT MGM/TOI THOUGH FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20...WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WENESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  83  64  81  61 /  50  30  60  70  30
ANNISTON    65  84  65  81  62 /  30  30  50  70  30
BIRMINGHAM  67  85  67  81  63 /  60  30  60  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  66  85  67  81  62 /  60  40  60  70  30
CALERA      66  84  66  80  63 /  60  30  50  70  30
AUBURN      66  85  66  82  64 /  10  20  30  50  30
MONTGOMERY  66  88  68  83  65 /  10  20  30  50  30
TROY        66  87  67  84  67 /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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