Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 311957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON AREA RADAR RETURNS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AND MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTH EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SURGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WITH IT BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GUSTS 25
TO 35 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE YEAR WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING NORTH AND AREA WIDE
ON SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. MOISTURE RETURN ALLOWS RAIN CHANCES TO RE-ENTER
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT IS NOT
NEARLY AS COLD AS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

75

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW SPRINKLES WERE EVIDENT ON LOCAL RADARS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONT. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SPRINKLES AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS.

SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A MOSTLY COLD AIR ADVECTION MORNING WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN COLD AIR. LEFT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS ADVERTISED ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT FREEZING
BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. SOME COLDER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE UPPER 20S.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COLDER AREA WIDE. WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SOME PLACES ONCE AGAIN MAY BE VERY VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING
WHILE OTHERS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTIONS...CAUSE AND
EFFECT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE NEXT FRONT. WILL POP
MENTION STATUS QUO AT THIS TIME DUE TO THESE INCONSISTENCIES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THE NEXT AIRMASS WILL BE COLD BUT NOT AS
COLD AS THE ONE THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THIS COLD SNAP...TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CEILINGS WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS A COLD AIRMASS
PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR STEADY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  50  27  59  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    32  51  28  57  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  32  52  29  58  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  32  54  29  60  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      33  52  30  59  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      33  52  31  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  35  57  30  61  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        35  56  30  60  37 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT SATURDAY TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...
ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...
GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...
RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$







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