Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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534 FXUS64 KBMX 260034 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 734 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 709 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 Scattered thunderstorms were still moving around Central Alabama early this evening. The short wave trough has moved east of the area but the smaller scale interactions along boundaries and pockets of instability will keep the activity going a few more hours. Expect a diminishing trend through midnight. A more pronounced trough moves by late tonight but appears to have its greatest impacts north of the area. Similar to last night, low clouds and patchy fog will develop around sunrise and slowly dissipate during the morning hours. Sunday appears to be a calmer day, as upper level heights will actually increase as a 594 decameter ridge builds over the central Gulf of Mexico. That will help winds aloft become more westerly to west- southwesterly by Sunday afternoon. If we get any convective activity during the day on Sunday, it should remain across the far northern counties. Rain chances will then increase across the northwest counties in response to the upper trough axis moving eastward over the plains states and approaching surface front in Arkansas. Hot and humid conditions are expected due to the lack of showers and storms with highs in the lower 90s in most locations. Heat indices will approach the 100 degree mark during the peak heating of the day. 56/GDG/75 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 The main story in the extended continues to be late Sunday night into Monday as the main upper system is expected to move through with some strong to severe storms possible. A second additional wave of convection may occur during the afternoon hours with heating before the surface system is through. After that, milder/ rain free conditions are expected for the second half of the week as ridging takes hold for Tuesday through Friday. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 The main upper level trough is expected to slide through the region late Sunday night through the overnight hours into Monday. This upper wave will provide the forcing for showers and thunderstorms across Central AL. There will be enough instability in place, along with modest deep layer shear to support a few strong to severe storms overnight Sunday night into Monday. After the initial upper wave moves through, guidance suggests the surface boundary could trigger additional convection during the afternoon/evening hours on Monday as it moves through. Drier conditions expected Tuesday through Friday as the main trough remains to our east and broad ridging sets up to our west. Some guidance tries to bring a few waves down in this northwesterly flow, but this hasn`t been consistent. Most guidance shows the ridging winning out leading to mostly dry conditions for much of the upcoming week. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 709 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 Most terminals are VFR early this evening. Did mention VCTS at TCL/BHM. but the activity remains quite scattered and have VCSH mentioned elsewhere for a few hours. MVFR ceilings should develop toward sunrise similar to last night. These ceilings may drop into IFR at a few spots along with some patchy vis issues. Otherwise, rising ceilings and decreasing clouds with much lesser rain/thunder chances on Sunday. Winds will become light and variable to calm overnight and southwest around 10kts on Sunday. There may also be a few gusts 15-20kts at times. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening. Another round of convection is expected again late Sunday night through Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at less than 5 mph this afternoon, increasing to 6 to 12 mph on Sunday. Patchy fog is possible across the eastern portions of the area as well. Min RH values will be near or above 45 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries near 100%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 89 68 88 / 30 20 60 60 Anniston 69 89 70 87 / 30 10 50 60 Birmingham 71 91 71 89 / 40 10 60 50 Tuscaloosa 72 92 72 90 / 40 0 60 40 Calera 70 90 72 89 / 30 0 50 50 Auburn 70 88 71 86 / 30 0 20 60 Montgomery 71 92 73 90 / 30 0 20 60 Troy 70 91 72 89 / 30 0 10 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...75