Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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264 FXUS64 KBMX 261149 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 649 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024 Despite plenty of instability across Central Alabama today, an upper ridge will expand northward today and suppress convection. Increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air northward with highs today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. An MCS will likely enter northwest Alabama shortly after midnight and track southeast overnight. The outflow boundary will encounter a very warm and unstable air mass over north Alabama with damaging winds the primary threat. However, there will be just enough low level helicity for a low end threat for tornadoes, mainly north of I-20. The convective line will weaken as it approaches the I-20 corridor, and the severe threat for this first round will likely end by 8 AM Monday. Another round of severe storms will develop ahead of a surface front that will push southward through Central Alabama Monday afternoon and evening. The storm mode will likely include discrete cells would could have supercell characteristics. Low level helicity is fairly low due to unidirectional shear, so the tornado threat is very low. CAMS show surface based CAPE near 3500 J/kg south of the surface front with DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Mid level dry air intrusion from the morning storms will likely limit areal coverage of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with the higher threat for severe storm development along and south of I-20. 58/rose && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024 The frontal boundary should be moving through Central AL Monday evening/night, continuing to support strong to severe storms for a few hours Monday evening before exiting to our southeast before midnight. Drier weather expected Tuesday through the end of the week. Some guidance tries to hint at a few waves moving through the ridge to our west Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence isn`t there to included in the forecast at this time. Most indications are that the low level ridge that builds in across the deep south suppresses much of the thunderstorm activity under the northwesterly flow aloft. As we approach next weekend, the ridge slowly slides to our east, allowing a few shortwaves to slide through to our north, which will lead to increasing rain/storm chances Friday night through Saturday, but timing of these waves is highly uncertain and the forecast is likely to change in coming days. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024 Widespread IFR cigs across central Alabama this morning will lift and scatter by 16Z. VFR conds expected after 16Z and thru 07Z with south winds 8-12 kts and gusts to 20 kts. A line of strong storms will enter northwest Alabama arnd 06Z, reaching the I-20 corridor by 10Z. MVFR cigs will begin to form arnd 08Z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected again late Sunday night through Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at 6 to 12 mph today. Min RH values will be near or above 50 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries near 100%. Drier air builds in Tuesday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 71 86 62 / 10 60 30 20 Anniston 90 72 86 64 / 10 60 40 20 Birmingham 91 73 88 65 / 10 60 30 20 Tuscaloosa 92 74 89 66 / 0 50 30 20 Calera 91 73 87 67 / 0 60 30 20 Auburn 89 73 83 68 / 0 20 50 30 Montgomery 92 74 88 68 / 0 20 40 30 Troy 92 73 87 68 / 0 10 40 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...58/rose