780
FXUS64 KBMX 120001
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
701 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

High pressure will move across the southern states today and
tonight with prevailing northerly flow bringing cool and dry air
to the state. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below
normal this time of year with highs today in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. By Sunday
morning, the high will be weakening and moving east of the area
with flow returning to out of the south and south west. Moisture
and warmer air will will return to the state with high clouds
increasing through late Sunday. Highs on Sunday are expected to be
near normal and a couple of degrees warmer than today in the low
80s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

A rather active period of weather will occur during the upcoming
week. An upper level warm front will lift northward across Alabama
Sunday night. A west to east band of showers will develop between
I-85 and I-65 late Sunday night and lift northward. Rainfall
amounts will remain light initially due to drier air below 850mb.
Scattered to numerous showers will develop on Monday as broad
scale lift overspreads the area. A few storms possible across
south Alabama as a surface based warm front lifts northward. A
stronger low level jet develops Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Models differ considerably on timing and placement of heavier
rainfall during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. The NAM/GFS models
develop a cluster of convection Monday night across southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana and track it across south Alabama
Tuesday morning, while the ECMWF/Canadian models have an impulse
moving across south Alabama Monday morning with another impulse on
Tuesday closer to the Gulf Coast. If the system on Monday
verifies, this may keep better instability closer to the coast and
the GFS/NAM solution may be overdone for Tuesday. For this reason
will not highlight any severe or flooding threat at this time,
but certainly some potential exists for active storms. There
should be break in the rain on Wednesday before another system
impacts Alabama in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours across the
area. High pressure builds in across the area through the day. Winds
become generally light to calm overnight before increasing to
roughly 5kts tomorrow morning.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions continue through the weekend, as drier air
remains over the area. Tonight, max RH values will be above 85
percent. Light and variable 20ft winds are expected Sunday as high
pressure moves across the area. Min RH values Sunday afternoon
will range from 30 to 35 percent northeast counties to 40 to 45
southwest counties. Rain will move into area Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     51  80  56  71 /   0   0  20  80
Anniston    54  81  59  73 /   0   0  30  80
Birmingham  58  82  61  72 /   0   0  40  90
Tuscaloosa  59  82  62  76 /  10  10  50  90
Calera      58  82  61  73 /   0   0  40  90
Auburn      59  80  62  76 /   0   0  30  80
Montgomery  57  82  63  76 /   0  10  40  80
Troy        57  82  62  78 /   0  10  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...25/Owen