624
FXUS64 KBMX 312022
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
322 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

This afternoon.

A highly amplified longwave ridge axis extended from over the
Northeast Gulf of Mexico northward to over much of Michigan.
Toward the surface, expansive high pressure located across Western
Pennsylvania continues to influence conditions across our
northeast and eastern counties while a diffuse surface boundary
extends from Central Texas eastward into the Mid-South and further
southeast across our southwest and southern counties.

Clouds are increasing from the west and southwest from deep
convection well to our southwest over Southeast Texas. Shower
activity has developed over the past few hours over portions of
eastern Mississippi and is moving into portions of our southwest
and west-central counties early this afternoon. Some thunderstorm
activity will be possible in this area later this afternoon as a
few shortwave disturbances in the mid levels propagate eastward
over the western portion of the area. Cloud cover will be thinnest
across the east but skies will generally become partly cloudy
areawide later this afternoon. Winds will be breezy at times from
the southeast at 10-20 mph due to the proximity of the weak front
and the pressure gradient from northeast to southwest across the
area. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s far north and
in the higher terrain east to readings around 90 far south.

Tonight.

A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region
overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of
the area. Surface high pressure will move further northeast of
the area, becoming centered across the Mid Atlantic Region while a
diffuse surface boundary will linger to our southwest and will
help act as a focus for more showers and some thunderstorms to
develop and move east into the area. Winds will be from the
southeast at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s
north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s
to near 70 far southwest.

Saturday.

The weakness aloft moves northeast, becoming centered over much
of the Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The northwest flow
aloft along with sufficient instability and some shear will favor
development of widespread showers with more thunderstorm activity,
especially toward midday and into the afternoon. Conditions may
favor the development of a mesoscale convective system upstream
that may move into the area later in the day that would pose an
organized damaging wind risk. Even if that scenario does not
materialize, even isolated heavy storms may be capable of a
downburst wind risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall with higher
precipitable waters and generally slower storm motions could
result in localized flooding where multiple storms move over the
same area, especially urbanized and poor drainage areas. Winds
will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will
range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east
to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

With elevated moisture and a string of impulses within zonal to
northwesterly flow, rain chances remain in the forecast everyday
through much of next week. Forecast remains on track this
afternoon, with no significant adjustments needed.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

There`s still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio
Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another
weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated
as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing
features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by
mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is
forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us
in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week.
That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Clouds will gradually increase from the west through the rest of
the afternoon with increasing chances of showers through early
afternoon, followed by a chance of showers and some thunderstorms
far west. Expect clouds to continue to increase east over the area
tonight with further increases in showers with some thunderstorms
with greatest chances remaining across the west. Rain chances
only increase further into the day on Saturday with thunderstorm
potential growing at the end of this forecast cycle arriving from
the west and moving east across the area later in the day.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances increase tonight, and remain elevated through Sunday.
Minimum RH values greater than 50 percent are expected through the
weekend. 20 ft southeasterly winds at 6-12mph are expected
Saturday. 20ft winds become southerly Sunday at less than 6mph.
Increased rain chances and elevated moisture values continue
through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  80  62  82 /  60 100  70  50
Anniston    65  82  64  81 /  50  80  60  50
Birmingham  65  82  66  82 /  60 100  60  50
Tuscaloosa  68  84  68  83 /  60 100  60  50
Calera      65  82  67  81 /  60 100  60  50
Auburn      65  83  65  81 /  30  60  40  50
Montgomery  67  85  67  82 /  60  80  50  50
Troy        67  83  66  83 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05