Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
968 FXUS65 KBOI 102007 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 207 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...High temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal throughout the region through the short term period thanks to a building upper level ridge. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day, with valleys seeing temperatures peak in the mid to upper 90s. Dry conditions will dominate the weather as well, although a few high resolution ensemble members are showing a very low chance (<10% chance) of showers on Tuesday evening. As the upper level flow gets more zonal thanks to a cut off low over British Columbia, afternoon westerly winds will pick up on Tuesday and Wednesday. The strongest gusts will be in the Lower Snake River Plain and Magic Valley, with sustained westerly winds around 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph each afternoon-evening. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Upper level zonal flow will shift to the southwest on Thursday, with above normal temperatures continuing through Friday evening and peaking on Thursday. By Friday night, a weak dry cold front will begin to move through the region thanks to an incoming very cold cut off low off the coast of British Columbia. A low chance (<20% chance) of precipitation will mainly be focused over the Central ID mountains on Friday evening as the front begins to move into the region. The precipitation looks to stay mainly to our north and east on Saturday, but temperatures will cool dramatically as the cold air mass centers over the Pacific Northwest. Models stay consistent and in good agreement through Saturday, until variation begins to take place in the position of the upper level cut off low on Sunday. Some deterministic and cluster solutions show the low centering over Central ID while some push it further north on Monday. Either solution will bring cooler and wetter weather, but there is disagreement in the extent of the cold temperatures and coverage of precipitation. The CPC outlook for the next 6-10 days does slightly favor cooler and wetter temperatures north of the Baker County-Washington/Valley County line. && .AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Monday afternoon will be breezy in the Magic Valley, but will calm by early evening. Surface winds: generally NW 5-10 kt except 10-20 kt from near KMUO east through KJER/KTWF through 12/03Z then everywhere then variable less than 8 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with some high clouds. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt, then variable less than 5 kt after 12/03Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....SA