919
FXUS65 KBOI 080953
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
353 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...A minor mid-level
disturbance pushing across SW Idaho early this morning has
brought light showers as it`s moved through the lower Snake
Plain. A few sprinkles are possible across the Boise mtns as it
tracks east through mid-morning. Otherwise another hot early
June day across the region with high temperatures around 15
degrees above normal. Southeast Oregon and portions of SW Idaho
south of the Snake Plain will see afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Locally gusty winds to 45 mph are possible, but
don`t expect widespread outflows from storms that develop today.
Southwest flow sets up over the area tonight into Sunday as an
upper trough pushes onto the Pac NW coast. Increasing dynamics
and elevated instability will support a 15-25% chance of showers
and thunderstorms over SE Oregon and far SW Idaho overnight.
This coverage expands on Sunday as the wave moves inland and
daytime heating (even through increased cloud cover) adds energy
and instability. High moisture content (PW values around an
inch or 90-95th percentile) will add the threat for locally
heavy rain from showers/storms. The potential for stronger
storms exists over s-central Idaho on Sunday where surface and
mid-level conditions are most favorable. Showers and storms
dissipate Sunday evening as the upper wave moves east, leaving
dry and warm conditions on Monday under weak ridging aloft. The
heat peaks today with a not as hot, but more humid day on
Sunday. Monday is the `coolest` and driest day of the period
with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal (mid 80s for lower
valleys).

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...The long term period
starts with zonal flow over the PacNW and extending well out
into the Pacific, and this should last through Thursday. By
Friday, the flow aloft shifts to SW as a large upper level low
moves toward the coast of SW Canada. This low is forecast to
move onshore Saturday with better-than-average model agreement.
However, there is still some spread with the timing and location
of the system. Models agree that we will be dry with
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal through Friday,
before cooling to near normal Saturday. It should be pointed out
that even though the current model suite is in good agreement,
there has been a significant amount of variability in the track
and strength of this upper low over the past few days, and
further adjustments are likely. At this time, the forecast is
dry Saturday, but if the forecast track of the low shifts
southward, that will change.

 &&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers in the Lower Treasure Valley and
over Owyhee County will end by Sat/11Z. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop around 20Z across
southeast Oregon and in southwest Idaho mainly south of the
Snake River. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kt possible,
as well as MVFR conditions due to brief heavy rain. VFR
conditions outside of thunderstorms. Surface winds: N to NW 5-15
kt, except gusty near storms. Winds at 10k ft MSL: W-SW 10-20
kt, becoming variable 5-15 kt by 09/06Z.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds W 10-15 kt, becoming variable 6 kt or
less after 10Z, then becoming NW 6-12 kt after 19Z.

Sunday Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with the most coverage across the higher
terrain. Stronger showers and thunderstorms will produce brief
IFR/MVFR conditions with heavy rain and gusty winds. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions expected. Surface winds generally
W-NW 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP