974
FXUS65 KBOI 110304
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
904 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...A warming trend will continue into Tuesday as
highs will be in the 90s across the lower valleys. Westerly
flow aloft will maintain the dry conditions. Winds remain light,
but locally breezy conditions develop during the afternoon as a
dry cold front approaches from the northwest. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and clear. Surface winds: variable less than 10
kt. Winds aloft at 10kft: W-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable less than 5 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...High temperatures
will be about 10-15 degrees above normal throughout the region
through the short term period thanks to a building upper level
ridge. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day, with valleys seeing
temperatures peak in the mid to upper 90s. Dry conditions will
dominate the weather as well, although a few high resolution
ensemble members are showing a very low chance (<10% chance) of
showers on Tuesday evening. As the upper level flow gets more
zonal thanks to a cut off low over British Columbia, afternoon
westerly winds will pick up on Tuesday and Wednesday. The
strongest gusts will be in the Lower Snake River Plain and Magic
Valley, with sustained westerly winds around 10-15 mph with
gusts to 30 mph each afternoon-evening.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Upper level zonal flow
will shift to the southwest on Thursday, with above normal
temperatures continuing through Friday evening and peaking on
Thursday. By Friday night, a weak dry cold front will begin to
move through the region thanks to an incoming very cold cut off
low off the coast of British Columbia. A low chance (<20%
chance) of precipitation will mainly be focused over the Central
ID mountains on Friday evening as the front begins to move into
the region. The precipitation looks to stay mainly to our north
and east on Saturday, but temperatures will cool dramatically
as the cold air mass centers over the Pacific Northwest. Models
stay consistent and in good agreement through Saturday, until
variation begins to take place in the position of the upper
level cut off low on Sunday. Some deterministic and cluster
solutions show the low centering over Central ID while some push
it further north on Monday. Either solution will bring cooler
and wetter weather, but there is disagreement in the extent of
the cold temperatures and coverage of precipitation. The CPC
outlook for the next 6-10 days does slightly favor cooler and
wetter temperatures north of the Baker County-Washington/Valley
County line.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA