Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
083 FNUS75 KBOU 020118 FWSBOU Spot Forecast for Kellys Corner...USFS National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 718 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Convective activity has weakened across the northern mountains of Larimer County, such that no additional showers/storms are expected over or near the fire. We also do not anticipate any more erratic/gusty winds associated with convective showers the rest of the evening into the overnight hours. From now until around midnight, winds should be 10-18 mph out of the west, weakening to 5-7 mph overnight through sunrise. Good RH recovery is expected overnight with RH rising to around 70%. On Sunday, winds should remain out of the west-northwest, and could gust over 30 mph by noon, continuing into the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm chances increase after 12 PM, with slight chances continuing through 7 PM. Overall chances are much less than on Saturday, with 15-30% during the afternoon window. It will also be dry because of the downsloping winds (west), with RH dropping to around 20%. Thus the chance of a wetting rain will be less than 20%. .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 0700, then mostly sunny (15-25 percent) until 1200, then partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 1500, then mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after 1200 until 1500, then chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. CWR.................9 percent increasing to 17 percent in the afternoon. LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3 until 1500, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 73. Min humidity........19 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph until 1200, then 13 to 21 mph with gusts to around 29 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800, then 1400 ft AGL until 0900, then 5700 ft AGL until 1000, then 12100 ft AGL until 1600, then 8700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 11 to 16 mph until 0900, then 21 to 29 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then very good until 1000, then excellent until 1700, then very good. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........33 24 15 14 19 23 38 44 50 55 58 60 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 Temp............46 51 58 65 69 72 72 73 73 72 70 68 RH..............60 50 39 30 24 20 19 19 19 21 23 25 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 8 9 10 15 15 17 17 17 18 20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 12 15 17 24 24 26 28 28 29 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.4 5.7 10 12 12 12 11 12 9.3 7.0 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.13 12 14 21 24 25 26 26 29 28 28 24 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 17 102 210 255 283 283 284 280 223 148 SmokeDispersion.P P P VG E E E E E E E VG .SUNDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 1900, then partly cloudy (25-35 percent). CWR.................4 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 45. Max humidity........62 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts to around 25 mph until 2400, then 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms until 2200. Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after 2100. Transport winds.....West 26 to 32 mph until 2000, then 16 to 22 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900, then very good until 2000, then fair until 2100, then poor. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........58 45 40 35 31 26 21 21 20 20 20 19 Weather cov.....SCH SCH Weather type....RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............67 62 59 56 54 53 51 49 48 48 46 45 RH..............26 32 37 43 46 48 52 55 57 59 60 62 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..16 14 14 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 20 FT wind gust.25 22 22 18 18 16 15 13 12 12 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...6.4 4.4 2.4to 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.32 26 22 16 17 18 20 20 20 20 18 17 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..178 101 46 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 SmokeDispersion.E VG F P P P P P P P P P .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent) until 0800, then partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1300, then mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain showers after 1200. CWR.................5 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........22 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 10100 ft AGL after 1100. Transport winds.....West 15 to 24 mph until 1000, then 24 to 29 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then good until 0900, then very good until 1000, then excellent. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........19 24 29 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............46 50 56 61 66 69 72 74 75 75 74 73 RH..............59 51 42 36 29 26 23 22 22 23 23 24 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..8 8 9 10 13 14 16 16 16 17 16 16 20 FT wind gust.13 13 15 16 21 22 25 25 25 28 25 25 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 2.2 4.0 5.6 7.1 8.5 9.4 10 11 11 9.9 8.7 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.15 18 22 24 25 24 24 25 25 26 28 28 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 36 76 118 154 180 198 222 239 243 236 212 SmokeDispersion.P P G VG E E E E E E E E .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY... Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 17 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 17 mph. .THURSDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. $$ Forecaster...Schlatter Requested by...Karen Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2415478.0/BOU .DELDT 06/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL coftc@firenet.gov