677
FXUS61 KBTV 312333
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cool night tonight, our recent stretch of gorgeous
early summer weather continues with a steady warming trend
through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure will
keep the weather dry for the next several days. Our next best
chance of rain does not arrive until middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 706 PM EDT Friday...Clearing skies and light winds are
expected overnight as surface and upper level ridging build over
the area. Temperatures will dip into the upper 30s in parts of
the Adirondacks, mainly 40s elsewhere, 50 close to Lake
Champlain. Previous discussion follows.

We can look forward to a warming trend as we begin
meteorological summer. Saturday looks to be gorgeous days for
outdoor activities, with highs 74-82, plentiful sunshine and
comfortable humidity. Area waters are still on the cool side
with water temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Given that it is
the weekend and with sunny condition and temperatures reaching
the low 80s, cold water safety should be exercised for those
taking advantage of the gorgeous weather. While upper ridging
builds in from the west, we do maintain a light northerly flow
below 850mb level so the air mass will be continental polar in
nature. Dew points will be in the 40s so the weather will be
gorgeous to be outdoors. Overnight lows on Saturday night should
be quite a bit warmer than Friday night, bottoming out in the
mid 40s to low 50s as the warming trend takes hold and
temperatures fall from daytime highs that are 5 to 7 degrees
higher than on Friday afternoon. Next chance for a few isolated
showers may arrive on Sunday, but given the overall dry synoptic
pattern, it may be more in the way of clouds as opposed to any
appreciable rainfall. So generally, have kept a dry forecast
with PoPs staying below slight chance category, i.e. less than
15 percent through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Friday...The beautiful weather will continue
through the weekend as the region remains under upper level
ridging. Temperatures will once again warm into the upper 70s
and low 80s, with dewpoints only in the 50s making it feel quite
pleasant. A weak shortwave will approach the region on Sunday,
which will allow for some increased moisture across the region.
This will mostly come in the form of some mid-level clouds due
to dry air associated with the upper ridge, although a spot
shower or sprinkle may be possible. Sunday night will be on the
mild side, with overnight lows dropping into the 50s to near 60.
Overall, it should be a beautiful end to the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Friday...The region will continue to remain
under the influence of upper level ridging for the first half of
the work week, keep the chances for showers fairly low. Rain
chances will gradually increase as we head towards the middle of
next week as the ridge slowly breaks down with a potential
closed low over the Great Lakes and a cold front approaching
from the west. Temperatures for most of next week will be
seasonably warm, generally the low to mid 80s in the broad
valleys, before some cooler temperatures return late week.
Overnight low temperatures will continue to be on the mild side,
with no frost or freeze concerns anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions with dry weather will
prevail through the TAF period. A mid/high deck 15-20 kft during
the daylight hours will become clear overnight tonight.
Northwest winds with gusts up to 18-23 kt this afternoon will
subside to light and variable after 00z Saturday before
increasing to 10-15 kt after 12z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Chai/Neiles