Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 010240
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1040 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms will pass
through the region tonight ushering in cooler and mainly dry
weather for Thursday onward into the first half of the upcoming
weekend. Building high pressure spells a return to warm and dry
summerlike weather for Sunday into the early portions of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1040 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms really
diminishing now just ahead of a surface cold front now approaching
KMSS. Held on to the thunder for another couple hours as CAPE in
the boundary layer (BL) still 500+ J/kg. It does appear low- level
winds shifting to NW in the boundary layer ahead of the surface
front and has led to decoupling in the BL and some patchy
fog/mist, but looks like advection of drier air with dew points in
the 50s just upstream, but could be a few hours where some forms
before the drier air moves in. Front should be south of the region
by morning.

Behind the front there are still plenty of clouds, so partly to
mostly cloudy skies look good. Low temps will hold slightly above
normal in mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Thursday, a deep trough settles over the region aloft behind
the departing cold front, while surface high pressure builds
southeastward front central Ontario. Should turn out to be a
pretty nice day under modest northwesterly flow though there will
be plenty of fair weather clouds around. Can`t rule out a
sprinkle or isolated shower across the higher terrain, but the
valleys should remain largely dry. Highs will be right around
normal or slightly below, generally ranging through the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Wednesday...Mid level trough will continue to
affect the North Country providing slight to low chance mainly
across the higher terrain with mostly cloudy skies gradually
becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear late Friday. At the
surface, North to Northwest flow will filter in drier air as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes area.
Friday mid to late day, mid level ridge will begin to build in as
well in the wake of the mid level trough that exits eastward.

Temperatures will be below normal with mins in the mid 40s to mid
50s. Max temperatures on Friday expected to range from the mid 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Wednesday...Ridge of high pressure remains over
the region through at least late Saturday. Models have come into
good agreement on a more inland track for TS Hermine. Both GFS and
ECMWF 12Z runs show this tropical system near the mid Atlantic
states Sunday morning gradually moving east or northeastward into
Monday. While the ridge looks to keep low pressure center of
Hermine south and east, some moisture may surge into southern and
Central Vermont early next week. Have increased POPs to include
slight to low chance for showers Sunday night into Monday. By no
means is this set in stone as this is the first cycle this
forecaster has seen in recent days that align with a track hugging
the coast. Even with the similarities, there are still some track
differences. Will be keeping an eye on how things progress for the
latter half of the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Brief MVFR and possible IFR in scattered
showers and thunderstorms through midnight associated with a
surface frontal passage. Behind the front, period of MVFR looks
likely outside of the deeper St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys,
which should last into the early portions of Thursday morning.
After 14-16z though, any MVFR will lift to a SCT/BKN VFR with a
couple layers of 4000 and 8000 ft through Thursday. Winds light
south/southwest trend light north/northwest toward morning.

Outlook 00Z Friday through Monday...

Thu night-Friday: Generally VFR in the valleys, but still some
chance of lingering MFVR CIGS in the mtns through 14Z Fri.

Friday through 12z Sunday: Generally VFR under high pressure.
Early morning IFR fog possible, especially at KSLK and KMPV.

12z Sunday through 00z Tuesday: Mainly VFR with chances for MVFR
showers across central/southern areas depending on the track of
tropical storm Hermine.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Of note: August 2016 is poised to set the record for the warmest
August on record at Burlington, VT (KBTV). The current monthly
average temperature sits at 73.8F as of yesterday, with the
current monthly record being 73.1 set back in 1947. Given today`s
warmth this record will be broken. Additionally, it looks certain
that Massena, NY (KMSS) will have their second warmest August on
record.

Finally, meteorological summer (June-August) at KBTV is set to be
the second or third warmest on record. Final August and summer
stats for KBTV and other first order sites will be sent out later
this week. Records for KBTV go back to 1884.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/Sisson
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Sisson
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Lahiff/Sisson
CLIMATE...JMG



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