Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






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