Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


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