Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


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