Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN
FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH
DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS
REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT
BUYING THIS AS BOTH MODELS SHOWING BUILDING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ON
FRIDAY...AND FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY WEAK...GIVEN THAT JET STREAM IS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS CANADA. THUS...HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWING A DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR.

00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT
KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.