Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011412
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH
THE DAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR/BTV 6KM
REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WHICH HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF
CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANIED FORCING. BOTTOM LINE,
WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. DID OPT
TO DOWNPLAY ANY STRONG/SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
GENERAL LACK OF PBL DESTABILIZATION, AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
BROADER THREAT OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ACCORDINGLY. ANY STRONGER
STORMS, IF THEY DO OCCUR WOULD APPEAR TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

BY THIS EVENING SHOWERS END WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS EAST AND SKIES TREND PTLY CLOUDY OVER
TIME. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS. WHILE
PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY, OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECENT MIXING ATOP THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE 500-1000 FT
AGL LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER


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