Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 302002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN VERMONT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW PASSING THROUGH THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EXIT VERMONT BY THIS EVENING. MIDDAY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PREVENTED STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TODAY. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z HOWEVER AND
IF ONE CAN GET GOING, 0-6KM SHEAR IS 30+ KTS SO THERE IS STILL A
CONDITIONAL ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS VT. OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, SO LOOKS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. STILL A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROF TO COME THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH 500 TEMPS COOLING BUT COLUMN
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. FOG FORECAST A BIT
TRICKY WITH COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND GRADIENT WINDS MUCH OF
THEN NIGHT, LEFT OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT EVENING WITH LOW
TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A
BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING
500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS
FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.


SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER
IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR
SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CHAMPL VLY NY AND ALL OF VT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A FEW
STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/GUSTY
WINDS FROM KMPV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS SOUTHERLY
FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING LIGHT
AFTERWARD. SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

VFR ON FRIDAY WITH WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT
MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT.

12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW


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