Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250705
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING DECENT
SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 06Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



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