Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 150858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
458 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG
HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER FOR THIS.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT
IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060
AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN
INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY
FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








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