677
FXUS61 KBTV 081148
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will control the regions weather
through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal showers each
day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Drier
conditions return mid- week, but turn unsettled again towards
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 736 AM EDT Saturday...Scattered showers continue across
the area this morning. Additional showers will develop this
afternoon, still think there`s a chance for some thunder as
well. No big changes to the forecast with the update this
morning. Previous discussion follows.

Some showers have continued through the overnight as base of
upper trough and center of upper low shifts over the North
Country. We should have a break in the showers later this
morning as shortwave energy pushes out of our forecast area.
But, expect diurnally driven showers once again this afternoon
with a slight chance for thunderstorms as well. With cold pool
aloft under upper level low which will remain stationary over
our region through Sunday, there will be a chance for showers
with thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Could also see some
small hail with thunderstorms, but strong winds should not be a
concern. Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset both
this evening and Sunday evening. Surface temperatures will be
cooler than normal during the day and near normal overnight. QPF
will vary quite a bit, but some areas will have heavier rain if
they have multiple thunderstorms at one location. From today
through Sunday average rainfall will be around a quarter of an
inch to three quarters of an inch, with locally higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather will continue as
a closed upper low over the region slowly meanders eastward.
Showers will be diurnally driven for the most part, with
increased areal coverage in showers during the afternoon before
dwindling during the evening hours. Temperatures during the day
on Monday will continue to be on the cooler side, with highs in
the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be near seasonal, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Saturday...A break in the unsettled pattern
can be expected for mid-week as the closed upper low pushes away
and a period of surface high pressure builds across the region.
Cooler temperatures will trend towards seasonal normals, with
highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s before warming into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the second half of next week.
Overnight low temperatures will largely be in the 50s for most
of next week. Unsettled conditions will return as another upper-
level trough swings through, although there is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding timing so largely stuck to NBM guidance
with some chances for precipitation starting Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...MVFR ceilings currently at SLK, RUT and
MSS from showers that are continuing in parts of the area and
lingering moisture. VFR and isolated to scattered showers return
after sunrise today, but are not expected to result in a
reduction in visibility or ceilings below VFR. Winds will
generally be southwest at less than 10kts through 12z, before
turning south-southwest or westerly with gusts up to 20 kt at
times after 15z. Additional showers will move in early Sunday
morning after a short break in the shower action overnight. Some
BR development will be possible as winds go light overnight as
well.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles