888
FXUS61 KBUF 272342
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
742 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will send a cold front east with chances for showers
and thunderstorms into this evening. Unsettled weather will
persist on Tuesday then a drying trend and cooler conditions
will take hold for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The last line of organized convection is exiting to the east of
the forecast area. Despite strong winds aloft, for the most part
the storms were not strong enough to mix the winds aloft to the
surface, resulting in a minimal amount of damage reports. Now,
wind shear is decreasing, and only scattered thunderstorms
remain across the forecast area. As a result dropped the Severe
Thunderstorm watch a bit early.

Otherwise, it`s still breezy across the Niagara Frontier, but
these winds will drop off some tonight as a cold front trailing
low pressure in southern Quebec sweeps across and east of the
area. There will be some lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the night will be rain-
free.

Tuesday...A robust shortwave with the cyclonic flow will rotate
across the region. This will be accompanied by the next surge of
deeper moisture. Again showers and some thunderstorms will be
possible...especially during the midday and afternoon hours. Highs
on Tuesday will `likely` peak in the 60s to near 70F. It will also
be quiet breezy with westerly winds gusting up to 35 mph at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A potent trough and then a cold front will track across the area
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. As the trough tracks
across the area, showers will continue through the first half of the
night, before becoming less organized. Forcing from the trough will
provide the main focus for showers during the evening and early
overnight, while the cold front will move through and continue the
potential for showers. Have included sChc of thunder this update as
there could be just enough lingering instability early in the night
to support a few isolated thunderstorms, though this threat should
quickly wane through the night with the absence of diurnal heating.
Overall synoptic moisture ahead of the trough will be generally low
with PWATs of around an inch, and lowering some to around three
quarters of an inch after it crosses the area. With these lower
moisture values and weaker forcing from the cold front, showers that
do linger into the morning on Wednesday will be less organized. Most
areas can expect less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall, with the
greatest amounts east of Lake Ontario where forcing and moisture
will be slightly better. Temperatures on the night will be in the
upper 40s for the higher terrain to the low 50s for the lower
elevations.

Wednesday, showers will linger across the area, with the best chance
for showers southeast of Lake Ontario toward the NY/PA border.
Showers will taper off and track out of the area from northwest to
southeast. By the afternoon, showers should be limited to a general
area from the NY/PA border, to the Finger Lakes & to the western
ADKs. Northwest flow over the region will help keep temperatures
below normal, with highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s from the higher
terrain to lower elevations respectively.

Wednesday night, earlier showers should be out of the area, minus a
few sprinkles for the Southern Tier and for areas well southeast of
Lake Ontario. Clearing skies from northwest to southeast, along with
a mostly northerly flow will bring one of the cooler nights the area
has seen in a while with overnight lows dropping to the low to upper
40s.

The region will remain situated under broad, positively tilted upper
level troughing centered over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. To
the west, a strong, progressive ridge of high pressure will be
building eastward over the Great Lakes region. The surface high from
this feature will "undercut" the initial upper level troughing to a
degree, so while it should be another day of cooler than normal
weather, it will be drier across the region compared to Wednesday.
There remains a very low chance (15-20%) chance of showers across
portions of the North Country Thursday afternoon, which will be
further removed from the stabilizing effects of the high to the west.

Cool, dry and tranquil weather then expected Thursday night as the
upper level trough axis quickly pivots away from the eastern Great
Lakes and into New England. Temps will again fall back into the 40s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of high pressure and stout ridge will build east into
the region during the long term period. The surface high and large
ridge will be centered over the region from Friday afternoon through
Saturday evening, ensuring fair dry weather.

There are some timing issues with the next incoming trough and how
quickly the large ridge weakens and/or moves east. Due to this, some
guidance is bringing in the potential for showers starting on Sunday
morning, but with the lack of certainty, left at most sChc POPs.
Rain chances increase some on Monday as another weak shortwave moves
across the Great Lakes region on the lee side of the building ridge.

Temperatures for the period will start out near normal values in the
upper 60s and low 70s Friday, though warm to around 5-10 degrees
above normal by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front push east of the area this evening, with a few
lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms. Increasing low
moisture behind the cold front will result in MVFR and in some
cases IFR cigs later tonight. However most of the night will be
rain free.

On Tuesday a shortwave will bring increasing showers with a
chance of thunderstorms. Mainly MVFR flight conditions during
the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of
showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwest winds will continue into tonight and become
westerly. Small craft headlines in place on the lakes through
Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 PM EDT this evening through
     Tuesday morning for NYZ007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel
SHORT TERM...PP/SW
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...AR/Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel/RSH