Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
938 FXUS65 KBYZ 060844 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 244 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday... Satellite imagery shows flat ridge building in from the west, a feature that will bring us quiet weather over the next two days. There are a couple weak Pacific shortwaves to note. The first is approaching northern CA and producing mid and high clouds into northern NV...an area with observed pwats at 150% of normal. This will lead to a few thunderstorms in the northern great basin today, but it looks as if moisture will remain suppressed enough to keep convection to the southwest of our region. That brings us to the 2nd weak shortwave that is embedded within the Pacific jet and approaching the BC coast. As this energy moves inland and thru southern AB/SK over the next 24-36 hours, it will help to keep the monsoon-like moisture to our south through Friday. In fact, we will see associated backdooring cool advection on Friday...so tomorrow will be a bit cooler than today for most places. As far as convection goes, will keep slight (20%) pops over the southern mountains late Friday, but the greater chances of convection will be further south in WY. Otherwise, no chance of precip at lower elevations the next two days. Winds today will be much lighter than the past two days, but our far east will still see NW winds gusting 15-25 mph during the peak heating hours. Temps should reach the mid 70s to mid 80s today (coolest east), and mid 70s to lower 80s Friday (coolest north). One interesting tidbit. Billings airport has not seen a temp over 80F yet in 2024. It should happen today (we are forecasting 82F), and if it does, it will be the 5th latest first occurrence of 81F+ on record. The latest was 6/16/2005. JKL Friday night through Thursday... NW flow will be over the forecast area Friday night in a post- frontal environment. Models had minimal QPF, so kept the NBM 15% PoP in the NE Bighorns in the evening. There was no notable CAPE, but the SREF did show 30-40 kt of Bulk Effective Shear moving S out of the area. Mid-level lapse rates were around 7 deg C/km in the evening. The shear and lapse rates supported thunderstorms. Gusty winds in the evening across the area were supported by ECMWF ensemble meteograms. Low temps will be a few degrees above normal. Fast NW flow persists over the area on Saturday and moves out during Sunday as ridging builds in. This time period looked dry except for a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening over the SW mountains. Temps in the 70s on Sat. will warm into the 70s/lower 80s for Sunday. For Monday, clusters either showed ridging or SW flow moving into the area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread E into the area in the afternoon with a slight chance of precipitation continuing into the evening. Noted the CWASP on Mon. afternoon was in the 50s, supporting possible strong storms. Probability of at least 0.25 in. of precipitation 00Z Mon-00Z Tuesday was 30% in the SW mountains and 15% in KLVM. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Monday. Ridging will be over the forecast area on Tuesday with just a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains in the afternoon. Temps will trend higher with highs in the low to mid 80s. There will also be pockets of lower humidity around 20%. There will be ridging or SW flow over the area Wednesday with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms moving into western areas in the afternoon. Much of the area will have a 20% chance during Wed. evening. Highs will reach the mid 80s to around 90 and eastern parts of the area will have RH`s around 20%. Cluster solutions varied on Thursday from zonal flow to ridging to SW flow. There will be low chances of showers and thunderstorms over and near the mountains. Warmer and drier conditions will continue on Thursday. Will need to keep an eye on these conditions in case of fire weather concerns. Arthur && .AVIATION... Look for widespread VFR under mostly clear skies over the next 24 hours. NW winds will gust to 25 knots near the Dakotas border today. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 082 056/080 053/078 053/080 056/083 058/084 058/088 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 11/U 11/U LVM 085 052/082 048/080 049/079 052/080 051/082 052/084 0/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/T 21/U 12/T HDN 080 053/080 051/078 052/082 055/083 054/086 057/089 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 21/U 11/U MLS 078 050/080 050/074 051/078 055/083 054/084 057/090 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 10/U 10/U 4BQ 078 052/082 051/076 051/077 055/083 056/084 058/090 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 21/U 10/U BHK 075 047/079 045/073 046/074 049/080 051/081 053/086 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 10/U SHR 080 051/079 047/078 050/080 052/081 053/082 055/087 0/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 12/T 21/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings