Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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513 FXUS62 KCHS 110241 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Evening analysis reveals upper level troughing extending from New England down through the mid Atlantic and into the southeast region and attending belt of 40-50 knot mid level flow across the Carolinas. A myriad of meso boundaries (sea breeze and outflows) abound across the forecast area this evening while the main surface boundary appears to be across far southern Georgia/northern Florida. 02Z SPC mesoanalysis still shows a fair amount of instability, >1K J/Kg MLCAPE at this hour, although with increasing CINH owing to cooling boundary layer temps. Still, weaker convection continues to percolate across the region along those boundaries, particularly across southeast Georgia where instability remains the greatest. Rest of tonight: With upper level troughing digging into the region and the residual instability, there will likely be addition convection that bubbles up over the next few to several hours, although strong-severe storms are becoming increasing unlikely with the stabilized boundary layer. We have updated/tweaked pops to carry sct-nmrs showers/storms into the overnight with the last bit ending toward morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A zonal flow will persist Tuesday through Thursday while surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. An unseasonably dry airmass will prevail on Tuesday with PWATs dropping below 1" everywhere except near the coast. A decent sea breeze is anticipated in the afternoon. An isolated shower or tstm will be possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops, but it should be too dry to sustain any convection farther inland. The surface high will gradually shift over the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile a weak coastal trough will develop offshore before drifting closer to the coast. Moisture will gradually increase across the area from the Atlantic, though considerably better moisture will be across southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday. The main forcing mechanism for convection will be the afternoon sea breeze, though there are hints that some shortwave energy will move in on Thursday, potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime. High temps during the period will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A deep layered ridge will prevail Friday through Monday. However, there should be enough instability in place each day to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could reach the upper 90s inland. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered showers/thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours although the probabilities impacting any particularly terminal is low. Based on radar trends, KSAV looks to have the highest chance over th next few hours. Otherwise, given the afternoon/evening rainfall, we suspect we will run into the lower cigs and visibility issues as the night progresses. We have updated the terminal forecasts to show restrictions overnight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected; however, isolated convection could bring brief flight restrictions mainly in the afternoons. && .MARINE... Tonight: Main marine concerns for this evening will be the potential for strong winds and hail within any showers/thunderstorms that move offshore. Special Marine Warnings and/or Marine Weather Statements could be needed. Outside of convection, winds and seas are fairly benign. Southeast winds initially become more north or northwesterly by daybreak with front moving a bit further offshore. Seas average in the 2-3 foot range, with some 4 footers possible in the outer Georgia waters late. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail north of the waters through late week before shifting offshore. Northerly winds expected Tuesday before turning back to the E and then S by late week. Wind speeds should generally remain below 15 kt. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Adam/ETM/JRL SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...ETM/JRL MARINE...ETM/JRL