513
FXUS62 KCHS 110241
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. High
pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then
shift east early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Evening analysis reveals upper level troughing extending from
New England down through the mid Atlantic and into the southeast
region and attending belt of 40-50 knot mid level flow across
the Carolinas. A myriad of meso boundaries (sea breeze and
outflows) abound across the forecast area this evening while
the main surface boundary appears to be across far southern
Georgia/northern Florida. 02Z SPC mesoanalysis still shows a
fair amount of instability, >1K J/Kg MLCAPE at this hour,
although with increasing CINH owing to cooling boundary layer
temps. Still, weaker convection continues to percolate across
the region along those boundaries, particularly across southeast
Georgia where instability remains the greatest.

Rest of tonight: With upper level troughing digging into the
region and the residual instability, there will likely be
addition convection that bubbles up over the next few to several
hours, although strong-severe storms are becoming increasing
unlikely with the stabilized boundary layer. We have
updated/tweaked pops to carry sct-nmrs showers/storms into the
overnight with the last bit ending toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A zonal flow will persist Tuesday through Thursday while surface
high pressure builds in from the northwest. An unseasonably dry
airmass will prevail on Tuesday with PWATs dropping below 1"
everywhere except near the coast. A decent sea breeze is
anticipated in the afternoon. An isolated shower or tstm will be
possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops, but it
should be too dry to sustain any convection farther inland.

The surface high will gradually shift over the Mid-Atlantic
region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile a weak coastal trough
will develop offshore before drifting closer to the coast.
Moisture will gradually increase across the area from the
Atlantic, though considerably better moisture will be across
southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday. The main forcing mechanism
for convection will be the afternoon sea breeze, though there
are hints that some shortwave energy will move in on Thursday,
potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime.
High temps during the period will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will prevail Friday through Monday.
However, there should be enough instability in place each day to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active.
Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the
position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could
reach the upper 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will persist into the overnight
hours although the probabilities impacting any particularly
terminal is low. Based on radar trends, KSAV looks to have the
highest chance over th next few hours.

Otherwise, given the afternoon/evening rainfall, we suspect we
will run into the lower cigs and visibility issues as the night
progresses. We have updated the terminal forecasts to show
restrictions overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected;
however, isolated convection could bring brief flight
restrictions mainly in the afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Main marine concerns for this evening will be the potential
for strong winds and hail within any showers/thunderstorms that
move offshore. Special Marine Warnings and/or Marine Weather
Statements could be needed. Outside of convection, winds and
seas are fairly benign. Southeast winds initially become more
north or northwesterly by daybreak with front moving a bit
further offshore. Seas average in the 2-3 foot range, with some
4 footers possible in the outer Georgia waters late.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail north of
the waters through late week before shifting offshore.
Northerly winds expected Tuesday before turning back to the E
and then S by late week. Wind speeds should generally remain
below 15 kt.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam/ETM/JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...ETM/JRL