667
FXUS62 KCHS 110541
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
141 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. High
pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then
shift east early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
At 130 AM, SPC mesoanalysis continued to indicate an axis of
normalized CAPE across the marine zones and generally west along
the Savannah River Basin. In addition, Sig Tor values across
the outer GA/SC waters remained in excess of 3 units. Over the
past hour, KCLX has detected a radar detected supercell, with
occasional possible waterspout tracking to the east. This
activity will gradually wind down through the rest of the night.
Attention during the pre-dawn hours will turn to the potential
for fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A zonal flow will persist Tuesday through Thursday while surface
high pressure builds in from the northwest. An unseasonably dry
airmass will prevail on Tuesday with PWATs dropping below 1"
everywhere except near the coast. A decent sea breeze is
anticipated in the afternoon. An isolated shower or tstm will be
possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops, but it
should be too dry to sustain any convection farther inland.

The surface high will gradually shift over the Mid-Atlantic
region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile a weak coastal trough
will develop offshore before drifting closer to the coast.
Moisture will gradually increase across the area from the
Atlantic, though considerably better moisture will be across
southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday. The main forcing mechanism
for convection will be the afternoon sea breeze, though there
are hints that some shortwave energy will move in on Thursday,
potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime.
High temps during the period will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will prevail Friday through Monday.
However, there should be enough instability in place each day to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active.
Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the
position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could
reach the upper 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6Z TAFs: KCHS/KSAV/KJZI received measurable rainfall since last
evening. Given the wet ground and light winds, restrictive
ceiling and visibility due to fog and stratus may develop across
each terminal during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning. Each
TAF will feature a TEMPO between 8-12Z for some degree of fog
and low clouds. During the daylight hours, winds should begin
the day light from the north. However, a sea breeze is expected
to develop during the afternoon, drifting over the terminals
between 18-19Z. In the wake of the sea breeze, winds should turn
from the SE and increase to around 10 kts. Winds are forecast
to weaken after sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected;
however, isolated convection could bring brief flight
restrictions mainly in the afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Main marine concerns for this evening will be the potential
for strong winds and hail within any showers/thunderstorms that
move offshore. Special Marine Warnings and/or Marine Weather
Statements could be needed. Outside of convection, winds and
seas are fairly benign. Southeast winds initially become more
north or northwesterly by daybreak with front moving a bit
further offshore. Seas average in the 2-3 foot range, with some
4 footers possible in the outer Georgia waters late.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail north of
the waters through late week before shifting offshore.
Northerly winds expected Tuesday before turning back to the E
and then S by late week. Wind speeds should generally remain
below 15 kt.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...ETM/JRL