653
FXUS62 KCHS 102303
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
703 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. High
pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then
shift east early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Although overall convective coverage has not been particularly
great this afternoon, several distinct clusters of strong to
severe cells continue to impact portions of the area.
Mesoanalysis indicates most of southern SC remains untapped
with buoyant surface-based parcels. These areas currently have
2,000-2,500 J/kg SBCAPE and Lifted Indices around -5C. The
DCAPE remains fairly low over the forecast area which helps
explain why we have thus far not been seeing very strong winds
with the storms. Nocturnal stabilization is expected to reduce
the severe potential pretty quickly here in the next 1-2 hrs. We
already see expansive CINH across southern GA where earlier
convection has impacted. We plan to start clearing out counties
from the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch starting with far
southern GA areas and working northward as convection clears the
area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
the overnight due to the proximity of the surface front. Low
temperatures generally range in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A zonal flow will persist Tuesday through Thursday while surface
high pressure builds in from the northwest. An unseasonably dry
airmass will prevail on Tuesday with PWATs dropping below 1"
everywhere except near the coast. A decent sea breeze is
anticipated in the afternoon. An isolated shower or tstm will be
possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops, but it
should be too dry to sustain any convection farther inland.

The surface high will gradually shift over the Mid-Atlantic
region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile a weak coastal trough
will develop offshore before drifting closer to the coast.
Moisture will gradually increase across the area from the
Atlantic, though considerably better moisture will be across
southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday. The main forcing mechanism
for convection will be the afternoon sea breeze, though there
are hints that some shortwave energy will move in on Thursday,
potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime.
High temps during the period will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will prevail Friday through Monday.
However, there should be enough instability in place each day to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active.
Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the
position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could
reach the upper 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom this
afternoon in vicinity of a stalled front. Guidance is pretty
consistent in showing the time period of potential greatest
impact being 20-00z. Any convection that moves over the
terminals could bring gusty winds and reductions in ceilings
and visibility. Bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity should
shift off the coast in the evening with VFR expected the
remainder of the night and through Tuesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected;
however, isolated convection could bring brief flight
restrictions mainly in the afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Main marine concerns for this evening will be the potential
for strong winds and hail within any showers/thunderstorms that
move offshore. Special Marine Warnings and/or Marine Weather
Statements could be needed. Outside of convection, winds and
seas are fairly benign. Southeast winds initially become more
north or northwesterly by daybreak with front moving a bit
further offshore. Seas average in the 2-3 foot range, with some
4 footers possible in the outer Georgia waters late.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail north of
the waters through late week before shifting offshore.
Northerly winds expected Tuesday before turning back to the E
and then S by late week. Wind speeds should generally remain
below 15 kt.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM/JRL
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...ETM/JRL