432
FXUS62 KCHS 101946
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
346 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall south of the region tonight. High
pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then
shift east early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for the entire
area through 9 PM this evening.

Upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. tonight, with the
trough axis eventually shifting more towards the coast as a
stronger wave pivots around the base. At the surface, a
stationary front is currently draped across the area with a weak
frontal wave analyzed over southeastern Georgia. This wave
should pass offshore tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to blossom over the
area near the frontal zone this afternoon. The main forecast
concern remains the potential for severe weather. Current SPC
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg, highest
across southern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina. Strong
deep layer shear is also present, generally around 40-50 knots
which would promote storm organization into supercells or multi-
cell clusters. Another notable severe parameter is the DCAPEs
which are in excess of 1000 J/kg across a good portion of the
area. Damaging winds gusts and large hail will be the primary
threats, with a lesser threat for isolated tornadoes. SPC
continues to highlight the entire area in a Slight Risk for
severe weather.

These storms will bring potential for heavy downpours but should be
moving enough to preclude a widespread flooding threat. Still, not
out of the question to see a Flood Advisory or two especially where
storms track over the same areas.

While coverage and intensity of storms peak during the late
afternoon and early evening before shifting offshore, some
additional activity could regenerate later into the night. Low
temperatures generally range in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A zonal flow will persist Tuesday through Thursday while surface
high pressure builds in from the northwest. An unseasonably dry
airmass will prevail on Tuesday with PWATs dropping below 1"
everywhere except near the coast. A decent sea breeze is
anticipated in the afternoon. An isolated shower or tstm will be
possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops, but it
should be too dry to sustain any convection farther inland.

The surface high will gradually shift over the Mid-Atlantic
region Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile a weak coastal trough
will develop offshore before drifting closer to the coast.
Moisture will gradually increase across the area from the
Atlantic, though considerably better moisture will be across
southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday. The main forcing mechanism
for convection will be the afternoon sea breeze, though there
are hints that some shortwave energy will move in on Thursday,
potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime.
High temps during the period will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will prevail Friday through Monday.
However, there should be enough instability in place each day to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active.
Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the
position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could
reach the upper 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom this
afternoon in vicinity of a stalled front. Guidance is pretty
consistent in showing the time period of potential greatest
impact being 20-00z. Any convection that moves over the
terminals could bring gusty winds and reductions in ceilings
and visibility. Bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity should
shift off the coast in the evening with VFR expected the
remainder of the night and through Tuesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected;
however, isolated convection could bring brief flight
restrictions mainly in the afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Main marine concerns for this evening will be the potential
for strong winds and hail within any showers/thunderstorms that
move offshore. Special Marine Warnings and/or Marine Weather
Statements could be needed. Outside of convection, winds and
seas are fairly benign. Southeast winds initially become more
north or northwesterly by daybreak with front moving a bit
further offshore. Seas average in the 2-3 foot range, with some
4 footers possible in the outer Georgia waters late.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will prevail north of
the waters through late week before shifting offshore.
Northerly winds expected Tuesday before turning back to the E
and then S by late week. Wind speeds should generally remain
below 15 kt.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...ETM/JRL