997
FXUS62 KCHS 101706
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
106 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will gradually sag southward across the forecast
area today. The front will become stationary near/along the
coast through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S. today, while a nearly
stationary front lingers across the area at the surface. Model
guidance has stayed consistent in showing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing over the area near the
frontal zone this afternoon. The main forecast concern remains
the potential for severe weather with this activity. Current SPC
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg with progs to
peak over 2500 J/kg later in the afternoon, especially across
southern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina. Strong deep
layer shear is also present, generally around 40-50 knots which
would promote storm organization into supercells or multi-cell
clusters. Another notable severe parameter today is the DCAPEs
which are in excess of 1000 J/kg across a good portion of the
area. Damaging winds gusts and large hail will be the primary
threats, with a lesser threat for isolated tornadoes. SPC
updated Day 1 Outlook now includes nearly the entire area in a
Slight Risk for severe weather.

These storms will bring potential for heavy downpours but should be
moving enough to preclude a widespread flooding threat. Still, not
out of the question to see a Flood Advisory or two especially in low-
lying or urban areas.

Tonight, convection will be ongoing across the region this evening,
then pushing off the coast late. PoPs will decrease from west
to east, ending by the pre-dawn hours. Cooler temperatures
expected across the region tonight. Low temperatures may range
from the mid to upper 60s inland to around 70 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A positively-tilted upper trough over the eastern CONUS Tuesday will
lift out of the Southeast overnight into Wednesday replaced by
northwest flow aloft. An area of broad high pressure will be
centered to our northwest and will gradually build into our region
through the week. A surface stationary front will meander just off
or near our coast through the period. This will result in a fairly
decent moisture gradient across the area with relatively dry high
pressure inland and moisture rich air streaming northeast over the
Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic. Despite the virtually
stagnant synoptic pattern, a tricky forecast is in play this week in
terms of convection. Showers and thunderstorms should be limited
over the coastal waters, but with PWATs near 1.5" over land, there
should be enough moisture and instability to generate at least
isolated convection along the coast (in proximity to the stationary
front). The general thinking is that areas far inland will likely
remain rain-free through most of the week. However, an inland
(offshore) shift in the boundary could result in greater (lesser)
coverage over land with southeast Georgia being the prime location.
Any convection that does develop should diminish in the evening.

Temperatures will remain nearly constant each day with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Lows will range from the upper 60s far inland
to the lower 70s near the coast and mid 70s along the beaches both
Tuesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The general pattern remains largely unchanged for the remainder of
the week. Ridging aloft should slide in from the southwest, with
surface high pressure across the northeast CONUS and an area of low
pressure developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms associated with a progressive sea breeze
are possible in the afternoon/evening each day. Temperatures should
range near or slightly above normal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom this
afternoon in vicinity of a stalled front. Guidance is pretty
consistent in showing the time period of potential greatest
impact being 20-00z. Any convection that moves over the
terminals could bring gusty winds and reductions in ceilings
and visibility. Bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity should
shift off the coast in the evening with VFR expected the
remainder of the night and through Tuesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected;
however, isolated convection could bring brief flight
restrictions mainly in the afternoon period this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, a cold front will remain nearly stationary across the marine
zones today. A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop
across SE GA this afternoon, tracking ENE across the waters
tonight. Wind directions will vary through today and tonight,
with speeds generally between 10 to 15 kts. Seas should remain
between 2- 3 ft through today and tonight. The primary concern
will be the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across
SE GA/SC this afternoon, pushing off the coast late this
afternoon and evening. Some of these thunderstorms will be
capable of producing winds in excess of 35 kts and large hail.
An isolated waterspout will be possible, especially north of
Ossabaw Island.

Tuesday through Saturday: Broad high pressure inland with low
pressure to the south will result in winds shifting predominately
out of the east-southeast through the period. Wind speeds, fairly
light on Tuesday, will average around 10 kt Wednesday into
Saturday. Seas will average 2-3 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...BRM/NED