595
FXUS61 KCLE 281947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front will move southeast through the area overnight
as a weak area of low pressure lingers across the Upper Ohio Valley
through Wednesday. High pressure will then build across the Great
Lakes on Thursday and persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region
this afternoon, aided by a mid-level shortwave and diurnal heating.
The most persistent updrafts continue to be seen across NW OH into
MI where more favorable instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) is found.
Elsewhere, periodic lightning is possible through the rest of the
afternoon, though the potential will remain more isolated. Small
hail will continue to be possible in any stronger storms through the
rest of this afternoon.

Attention tonight then turns to a slightly stronger mid-level trough
which will swing southeast across the Upper Midwest and Lower Great
lakes tonight into Wednesday. At the surface, a weak low pressure
will slowly pivot east along the US-30 corridor, sparking additional
showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon. Precipitation coverage will be higher versus today, with
nearly stationary storm motions at times. Will need to monitor rain
rates, particularly between the I-75/71 corridors with the HREF LPMM
suggesting isolated rain amounts of 2-3 inches possible in the most
persistent rains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet part of the forecast as the upper level trough departs with
Canadian high pressure settling into the Great Lakes. Still a chilly
day without any presence of warm air advection just with the
positioning of the surface high over the CWA through Friday night.
Dry forecast through the entirety of the short term forecast period
and an improvement to the afternoon high temperatures from Thursday
60s to lower 70s into Friday lower to upper 70s, although some
portions of NW PA still may have a little trouble eclipsing the 70F
mark. Plenty of sun Thursday and Friday with some high level clouds
moving in Friday night. Low dewpoints, clear skies, and winds going
calm equate to 40s away from the lake Thursday night. Some upper 30s
possible far eastern portions of the NW PA counties in the valleys.
No frost for now and think temperatures should stay high enough,
but will need to watch this carefully as the valleys could radiate
efficiently. Nights are much shorter this time of year, however, so
that would work against this.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A little more unsettled into the weekend with an upper trough axis
embedded in the zonal flow working its way through the are late
Saturday into Saturday night. Still have diverging solutions going
beyond this time frame, however. Zonal flow should persist through
the period with warm frontal interaction for the end of the weekend
into early next week. Temperatures continue to rise through the
period into the low to mid 80s by Monday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with a
mixed- bag of VFR, MVFR, and perhaps brief IFR conditions
possible through the TAF period in showers/storms. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, aided by day time heating, will
periodically impact TAF sites with non- VFR conditions through
this afternoon. Confidence remains low on exact timing/placement
of any potential storms so have kept mainly vcts at this time.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage should quickly decrease following
sunset with a brief lull expected in the late evening. Towards
3-4Z, we`ll need to start to watch out west as a line of showers
begins to approach TOL/FDY. Opted to include an IFR tempo group
at FDY where confidence is highest.

Winds are generally out of the west to northwest, around 10
knots, early this afternoon. Winds will shift towards the north
behind a weak cold front overnight and remain around 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR may
return Saturday night into Sunday in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds become northerly tonight 5-10kts, increasing to 10-20kts
behind a cold front Wednesday. While waves become 1-3ft in lower
winds tonight, expecting them to increase to 3-5ft for the western
and central basin Wednesday where another Small Craft Advisory may
be needed. Onshore winds will decrease Wednesday night through
Thursday night as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes, with
wave heights coming down as well during that time frame. Friday,
winds become light and variable with waves less than a foot.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26