706
FXUS61 KCLE 131840
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
240 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and crosses
the area on Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in for Monday into
Tuesday. A warm front lifts northeast across the region by
Wednesday, followed by a cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will gradually sag across the area through Monday,
before clearing to the south Monday night as high pressure
builds in. The frontal passage has trended slower, leading to an
increase in rain chances (POPs) late tonight and Monday across
portions of the area.

As of 2 PM, a few showers and storms are ongoing and gradually
moving east-northeast from Northwest PA into extreme eastern OH.
This activity is developing along both a lake breeze near the
lakeshore, and a subtle moisture gradient/wind shift extending
south. The true cold front, with more of a wind shift and
airmass change, is just now pushing into Northwest OH and will
sag through much of the area this evening. Isolated shower or
thunder potential does exist along the front this evening,
though overall a large portion of the area will stay dry. No
severe weather or flooding concerns with the storms today.

Activity with the cold front should either dissipate or exit
fairly quickly around sunset this evening, leaving us with a
spell of dry weather. A shortwave will move across the area
Monday morning, which along with the front lingering near our
southern counties will bring an opportunity for showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder late tonight into Monday morning.
The Toledo area should stay dry, though odds for some rain
increase south and east of there. Have 30-50% POPs for most
areas outside of Toledo late tonight or Monday morning, with
some likely/60% wording getting into Knox and Holmes Counties.
These POPs may be a bit low still, though some models are still
fairly dry so wasn`t confident enough to punch them up too much
higher yet. Lows tonight will generally dip into the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Patchy valley fog may develop tonight where skies
clear sufficiently ahead of the clouds/showers that arrive late
with the incoming shortwave.

The front will still be lingering across our southern counties
into Monday, a slower trend compared to prior expectations. We
should be mainly dry after the morning shower/thunder potential
with the shortwave given some subsidence behind the departing
shortwave. However, have some low (20-30%) type POPs lingering
through the afternoon as isolated activity may try re-developing
both along the lingering front and along a lake breeze. Highs
on Monday will be in the low to mid 80s for most, with Toledo
possibly pushing the upper 80s.

High pressure builds in Monday night as drier air advects in
behind the cold front, allowing for a dry, mainly clear, and
more pleasant night. Expect lows to get into the 60s for most
(the immediate lakeshore and downtown Cleveland may not dip
below 70), with dew points falling well into the 60s. Patchy
valley fog is possible late Monday night into early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will be overhead aloft on Tuesday, with weak surface
high pressure shifting to the east. Forcing will be minimal on
Tuesday though it will be a very warm day with moisture
beginning to return, leading to modest instability developing
into the afternoon. This could allow for a few isolated showers
or storms on Tuesday, though odds favor more places staying dry
than seeing any rain. Highs will range from the mid 80s to near
90 on Tuesday beneath 850mb temperatures of about 18C. With dew
points in the 65-70F range, peak heat index values will climb
into the low 90s. Activity will largely be weakly forced and
diurnally driven on Tuesday, meaning we`ll dry out pretty
quickly into Tuesday night. With that said, some modest warm air
and moisture advection will continue through Tuesday night as a
weak warm front lifts through ahead of a shortwave approaching
out of the Mississippi Valley. So while most activity should
dissipate with the setting sun, maintain some low 20-30% type
POPs for Tuesday night with the warm front. Lows Tuesday night
will generally be in the low to mid 70s as dew points climb.

The warm front is expected to lift north of the area for
Wednesday, allowing temperatures to surge towards 90F as dew
points push into the lower 70s. Any isolated rain/thunder with
the warm front should lift out early Wednesday. However, as
upper ridging gets shunned to the southeast the westerlies will
dip south and over the local area, with decent model agreement
in a weak shortwave moving through during the afternoon or
evening. The hot, humid airmass should be moderately to strongly
unstable and uncapped, which along with modest forcing with the
shortwave should allow for a decent coverage of afternoon and
evening showers and storms. POPs increase to 60-70% for most of
the area, a bit lower for Erie, in response. While the NAM is a
notable strong outlier in terms of flow aloft on Wednesday, even
when tossing that there should be modestly increased flow. This
may allow for convection to become more organized on Wednesday,
which could increase the potential for severe weather (likely
on the isolated side and in the form of wind damage/microbursts)
along with locally heavy rain and flash flooding (given PWATs
surging to nearly 2.00" and very deep warm cloud depths). Heat
index values will warm to the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday.
There is some low potential to reach Heat Advisory criteria
(100- 105F for 2+ hours), though convective potential may make
that hard to do on a widespread basis. It will remain quite
muggy Wednesday night with lows in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Troughing will gradually shift from the Upper Midwest and into
the Great Lakes and Northeast through the long term. The trough
should encourage a cold front that will be to our north to start
the long term on Thursday south across the area. There is
disagreement among operational models and ensembles in terms of
how quickly the front moves through and where it then stalls
into the weekend. The best consensus is for a Friday frontal
passage, with the front stalling near or just north of the upper
reaches of the Ohio River Friday night and Saturday. However,
it`s possible the front crosses as early as Thursday night...and
on the flip side, it`s possible it doesn`t quite clear the area
by Saturday. Have the highest POPs on Thursday, as there`s high
confidence we`ll be in a hot/humid/unstable airmass just ahead
of the approaching front. POPs stay fairly high on Friday,
though begin to lower towards Northwest OH and Lake Erie. Lower
POPs linger into Saturday, especially farther south, to account
for uncertainty regarding if the front can clear south or not.

In terms of potential hazards to be aware of, will need to
watch for continued convective related hazards until the front
clears given the hot, humid, and modestly sheared airmass ahead
of it. The main severe weather concern would likely remain
damaging winds from wet microbursts. The environment will also
support torrential/tropical rain-rates with any storms until the
front clears, keeping localized flash flooding in play. Heat
index values may again approach advisory criteria on Thursday,
though convection adds uncertainty to that potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, though there
remains some isolated pockets of lingering MVFR ceilings from
earlier this morning. Generally, VFR conditions should prevail
through the end of the TAF period, though will need to monitor
potential non-VFR tsra vsby impacts at ERI over the next several
hours. Otherwise, an area of light rain is expected to sweep
across the central and southern half of the area Monday morning.
Vsbys should remain VFR for the most part, though there is a
low chance that MVFR vsbys may briefly occur at MFD/CAK in any
heavier pockets of rain. Patchy fog may also impact YNG
overnight so have maintained the MVFR vsbys.

Apart from the northwest lake breeze at CLE/ERI, winds are
generally favoring a west to southwest direction this afternoon,
5 to 10 knots. Winds will diminish to less than 5 knots
overnight, favoring a west to southwest direction. Light winds
appear to persist into Monday with another late morning/early
afternoon northwest lake breeze developing at CLE/ERI.

Outlook...Mainly VFR favored through Tuesday, though there is a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening, particularly across the southern portion of the area.
Higher chances for non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday
in scattered to perhaps widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Non-VFR chances may persist on Friday afternoon and evening in
showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion
of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are generally
expected to be generally 10 knots or less into mid-next week.
Winds may briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift towards
the west to northwest behind a cold front Thursday into Friday.
This could usher in some 2 to perhaps 3-footers across the
central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. The most widespread
thunderstorm chances across the lake will occur in the afternoon
and evening hours on Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds will
be the primary concern with any stronger storms.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn